Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 9.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -4.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 56.3

Total Profit: -43.8

THE MASTERS

06/04/2023 - 09/04/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6.5 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 13.33% 9.87% 3.32% -6.55% MC
2 ESP Jon Rahm 7.5 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 11.76% 8.71% 4.41% -4.3% 1
3 USA Scottie Scheffler 7.8 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 2.4/1) 11.36% 8.42% 5.86% -2.55% T10
4 USA Jordan Spieth 14 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.94% 2.04% -2.9% T4
5 USA Patrick Cantlay 18 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.9% 2.95% -0.95% T14
6 USA Justin Thomas 18 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.9% 2.31% -1.59% MC
7 USA Collin Morikawa 20 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.53% 1.78% -1.74% T10
8 USA Tony Finau 22 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.22% 3.08% -0.14% T26 14.09
9 AUS Jason Day 25 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.85% 2.76% -0.09% T39 12.47
10 USA Xander Schauffele 25 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.85% 2.02% -0.82% T10
11 USA Cameron Young 25 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.85% 1.32% -1.53% T7
12 AUS Cameron Smith 25 (Spreadex: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.85% 1.06% -1.79% T34
13 USA Dustin Johnson 28 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.55% 0.11% -2.44% T48
14 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.18% 3% 0.82% T16 9.54
15 NOR Viktor Hovland 33 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.18% 2.36% 0.18% T7 (tied w/2) 9.54 +36.3
16 USA Sam Burns 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 2.04% 0.23% T29 7.91
17 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 40 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 0.86% -0.95% T16
18 USA Brooks Koepka 40 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.81% 0.11% -1.69% T2
19 USA Max Homa 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 1.68% 3% 1.32% T43 7.37
20 ENG Justin Rose 50 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.45% 2.22% 0.77% T16 6.36
21 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 50 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.45% 2.03% 0.58% T34 6.36
22 USA Will Zalatoris 52 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 10.9/1) 1.89% 1.4% 0.98% -0.42%
23 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.18% 1.1% -0.07% T10 5.15
24 AUS Minwoo Lee 66 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 2.02% 0.91% MC 4.84
25 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 66 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 1.42% 0.32% 33 4.84
26 IRL Shane Lowry 66 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 0.95% -0.16% T16 4.84
27 USA Tiger Woods 66 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 0.64% -0.47% WD
28 CHI Joaquin Niemann 66 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.11% 0.11% -0.99% T16
29 CAN Corey Conners 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.01% 0.77% -0.24% MC
30 AUS Marc Leishman 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.91% 0.27% -0.65%
31 ENG Paul Casey 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.91% 0.11% -0.8%
32 USA Rickie Fowler 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.77% 2.03% 1.26% 3.38
33 USA Patrick Reed 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.77% 1.57% 0.8% T4 (tied w/3) 3.38 +20.1
34 USA Russell Henley 150 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.49% 0.75% 0.26% T4
35 AUS Cameron Davis 150 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.49% 0.58% 0.09%
36 KOR Tom Kim 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.48% 1.05% 0.57% T16
37 KOR Siwoo Kim 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.45% 1.76% 1.3% T29
38 AUS Adam Scott 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.43% 0.62% 0.19% T39
39 USA Sahith Theegala 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.41% 2.29% 1.88% 9
40 USA Tom Hoge 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.41% 1.11% 0.7% MC
41 USA Kurt Kitayama 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.39% 2.2% 1.81% MC
42 USA Keegan Bradley 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.39% 1.76% 1.38% T23
43 AUS Lucas Herbert 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.62% 0.25%
44 USA Lucas Glover 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.43% 0.06%
45 ENG Lee Westwood 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.32% -0.04%
46 USA Hudson Swafford 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.11% -0.26%
47 USA Matthew Wolff 200 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.37% 0.11% -0.26%
48 USA Bryson DeChambeau 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.37% 0.11% -0.25% MC
49 MEX Abraham Ancer 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.35% 0.12% -0.23% T39
50 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.34% 0.91% 0.57%
51 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.32% 0.68% 0.36%
52 IRL Seamus Power 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.31% 2.54% 2.23% T46
53 ENG Danny Willett 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.31% 0.73% 0.42% MC
54 USA Talor Gooch 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.28% 0.11% -0.17% T34
55 USA Chris Kirk 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.26% 1.59% 1.33% T23
56 BEL Thomas Pieters 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.25% 0.59% 0.34% T48
57 NZL Ryan Fox 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.24% 0.93% 0.69% T26
58 ESP Sergio Garcia 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.22% 0.11% -0.11% MC
59 USA Brian Harman 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.19% 0.97% 0.78% MC
60 USA Billy Horschel 393 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.9/1) 0.25% 0.19% 0.4% 0.21% 52
61 SWE Alexander Noren 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.18% 2.17% 1.99% MC
62 USA Gary Woodland 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.18% 1.01% 0.83% T14
63 USA Bubba Watson 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.18% 0.11% -0.07% MC
64 USA Cameron Champ 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.17% 0.22% 0.06% MC
65 USA JT Poston 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.16% 0.75% 0.59% T34
66 USA Jason Kokrak 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.16% 0.11% -0.05% MC
67 USA Phil Mickelson 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T2
68 USA Harold Varner III 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T29
69 USA Harris English 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.15% 0.83% 0.69% T43
70 JPN Kazuki Higa 500 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.39% 0.24% MC
71 POL Adrian Meronk 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.15% 0.48% 0.34% MC
72 RSA Charl Schwartzel 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% T50
73 CAN Adam Svensson 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.12% 2.19% 2.07% MC
74 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.12% 1.03% 0.91% T23
75 USA Kevin Na 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.12% 0.11% -0.01%
76 USA Mackenzie Hughes 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.12% 0.58% 0.46% T29
77 ITA Francesco Molinari 633 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.4/1) 0.16% 0.12% 0.57% 0.46% MC
78 AUT Sepp Straka 758 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.1/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.61% 0.51% T46
79 USA Kevin Kisner 796 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.3/1) 0.13% 0.09% 0.44% 0.35% MC
80 USA Scott Stallings 806 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.1/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.47% 0.38% T26
81 USA Luke List 825 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 92.7/1) 0.12% 0.09% 0.62% 0.53%
82 USA Aaron Wise 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.77% 0.69%
83 USA Zach Johnson 1000 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.56% 0.49% T34
84 GER Bernhard Langer 1000 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% MC
85 USA Sam Bennett 1000 (Betfair : 12 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% T16
86 AUS Aldrich Potgieter 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.13% 0.1% MC
87 CAN Mike Weir 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.11% 0.08% MC
88 USA Fred Couples 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.11% 0.08% T50
89 AUS Harrison Crowe 5000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.01% 0.19% 0.18% MC
90 Ben Carr 5000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.01% 0.13% 0.11% MC
91 ESP Jose M Olazabal 5000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.11% 0.1% MC
92 NIR Matthew McClean 5000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.01% 0.11% 0.1% MC
93 SCO Sandy Lyle 6000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.11% 0.1% MC
94 FIJ Vijay Singh 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
95 USA Keith Mitchell 0% 0% 0% 0% 53
96 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T43
97 USA Taylor Moore 0% 0% 0% 0% T39
98 USA Larry Mize 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
99 Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
100 Gordon Sargent 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -4.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 58.8% 4.8%
2 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 12.7% 6.5%
3 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 41.6% 7.5%
4 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 46.9% 11.8%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 12 @ 1/5 96% 14.9%
6 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 52.2% 15.7%
7 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 52.7% 16.3%
8 Star Sports 8 @ 1/5 53.5% 16.5%
9 Sporting Index 7 @ 1/5 42.9% 17.3%
10 QuinnBet 8 @ 1/5 55.7% 18.1%
11 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 56.6% 19.1%
12 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 57.7% 19.6%
13 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 47.6% 21.1%
14 BetUK 7 @ 1/5 47.6% 21.1%
15 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 83.2% 21.5%
16 Coral 10 @ 1/5 83.2% 21.5%
17 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 39.1% 22.1%
18 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 39.1% 22.1%
19 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 52.1% 24.8%
20 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.6% 25.2%
21 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 54.5% 35.7%
22 Betway 12 @ 1/5 131.8% 36.7%
23 VBet 8 @ 1/5 80.4% 37.3%
24 Midnite 1 @ 1/1 55.8% 55.8%