Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 8.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 49.4

Total Profit: -50.7

Arnold Palmer Invitational

02/03/2023 - 05/03/2023

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 6 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 14.29% 11.72% 3.58% -8.14% T39
2 USA Scottie Scheffler 9 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 10% 8.2% 2.13% -6.07% T4
3 NIR Rory McIlroy 9 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 10% 8.2% 2.08% -6.12% T2
4 USA Collin Morikawa 18 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.32% 2.47% -1.85% MC
5 USA Tony Finau 20 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.91% 4.51% 0.6% T24
6 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.91% 2.34% -1.57% T39
7 USA Patrick Cantlay 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.57% 1.72% -1.85% T4
8 USA Justin Thomas 22 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.57% 1.48% -2.09% T21
9 USA Will Zalatoris 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.57% 1.37% -2.2% T53
10 AUS Jason Day 25 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.15% 2.33% -0.82% T10 (tied w/4) 13.56 +10.2
11 USA Max Homa 25 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.5/1) 3.85% 3.15% 1.88% -1.27% T14
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.15% 1.83% -1.33% T10
13 KOR Sungjae Im 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.41% 1.5% -0.91% T21 10.37
14 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.28% 1.86% -0.42% T4 (tied w/4) 9.8 +39.2
15 USA Cameron Young 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.28% 0.87% -1.4% T10
16 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.71% 1.1% -0.61% T14 7.35
17 USA Jordan Spieth 57 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.7/1) 1.72% 1.41% 0.49% -0.92% T4
18 USA Keith Mitchell 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.21% 1.72% 0.52% T24 5.19
19 KOR Tom Kim 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.21% 1.19% -0.02% T34 5.19
20 USA Sam Burns 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.12% 0.8% -0.33% MC 4.83
21 USA Keegan Bradley 80 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.01% 1.49% 0.47% T10 4.36
22 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.95% 0.29% -0.67% MC 4.1
23 USA Rickie Fowler 90 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.2/1) 1.1% 0.9% 1.46% 0.56% T31 3.88
24 IRL Shane Lowry 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.85% 1.24% 0.38% 67 3.68
25 ENG Justin Rose 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.81% 1.81% 1% MC 3.49
26 USA Taylor Montgomery 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% 1.41% 0.6% T39 3.49
27 USA Chris Kirk 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.77% 1.17% 0.4% T39 3.33
28 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.77% 1.02% 0.25% T61 3.33
29 USA Sahith Theegala 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 1.86% 1.2% T14 2.85
30 IRL Seamus Power 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 1.76% 1.1% 72 2.85
31 USA Gary Woodland 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.66% 0.59% -0.07% MC 2.85
32 USA Brian Harman 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 1.59% 0.94% MC 2.8
33 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 125 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% 0.84% 0.19% T53 2.8
34 CAN Corey Conners 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.57% 0.47% -0.1% T21
35 AUS Minwoo Lee 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% 1.03% 0.48% MC
36 USA Aaron Wise 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.5% 0.65% 0.15% MC
37 USA Tom Hoge 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.47% 1.76% 1.29% MC
38 KOR Siwoo Kim 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.47% 1.71% 1.24% T39
39 AUS Adam Scott 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.43% 0.37% -0.05% T31
40 SWE Alexander Noren 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.41% 1.8% 1.39% T61
41 AUS Lucas Herbert 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.73% 0.37% MC
42 USA Russell Henley 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.36% 0.32% -0.04% T53
43 USA Billy Horschel 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.34% 0.71% 0.37% MC
44 USA Hayden Buckley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.67% 0.34% MC
45 CAN Adam Hadwin 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.3% 2.06% 1.76% MC
46 USA Patrick Rodgers 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.28% 0.6% 0.31% MC
47 USA Wyndham Clark 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.28% 0.72% 0.45% T34
48 USA Alex Smalley 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.82% 0.55% MC
49 CAN Adam Svensson 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.78% 0.51% T24
50 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% 0.52% 0.25% T39
51 USA Scott Stallings 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% 0.5% 0.23% MC
52 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 307 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.42% 0.15% MC
53 CAN Nick Taylor 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 1.07% 0.82% MC
54 POL Adrian Meronk 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.26% 0.41% 0.15% MC
55 USA Beau Hossler 335 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48/1) 0.3% 0.24% 0.31% 0.06% MC
56 USA Joel Dahmen 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.92% 0.68% MC
57 USA Sam Ryder 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.49% 0.25% MC
58 USA William Gordon 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% 0.4% 0.17% T70
59 USA J.J Spaun 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.23% 1.06% 0.83% MC
60 USA Luke List 364 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.22% -0.01% MC
61 USA Taylor Moore 373 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.9/1) 0.27% 0.22% 0.34% 0.12% T39
62 AUT Sepp Straka 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.21% 0.6% 0.39% MC
63 USA Kurt Kitayama 383 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.9/1) 0.26% 0.21% 0.55% 0.33% 1
64 BEL Thomas Detry 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.18% 1.2% 1.01% T24
65 ARG Emiliano Grillo 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% T39
66 NZL Ryan Fox 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.65% 0.47% T14
67 USA Joseph Bramlett 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 0.62% 0.45% MC
68 USA Davis Riley 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.17% 0.28% 0.11% T8
69 SWE David Lingmerth 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.3% 0.13% T70
70 USA Peter Malnati 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.27% 0.1% MC
71 USA Patton Kizzire 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.26% 0.1% MC
72 USA Cole Hammer 500 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.24% 0.08% T65
73 ENG Danny Willett 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.56% 0.4% T34
74 KOR Byeong Hun An 508 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.1/1) 0.2% 0.16% 0.34% 0.18%
75 USA Andrew Putnam 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.15% 1.4% 1.24% T34
76 USA Harris English 547 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.4% 0.25% T2
77 RSA Garrick Higgo 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.56% 0.42% MC
78 USA Lee Hodges 575 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 71.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% MC
79 USA Robby Shelton 585 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.1/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.46% 0.32% T39
80 USA Eric Cole 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.41% 0.28% MC
81 USA Ryan Brehm 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.14% 0.15% 0.01% MC
82 USA Benjamin Griffin 604 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.8/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.69% 0.56% T14
83 ITA Francesco Molinari 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.39% 0.26% T14
84 IRL Padraig Harrington 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.36% 0.23% T53
85 USA Brendon Todd 643 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.3/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.61% 0.48% T39
86 ENG Aaron Rai 671 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.7/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.79% 0.67% T53
87 USA Nick Hardy 700 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.2/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.38% 0.26% MC
88 AUS Cameron Davis 710 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.1/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.15% 0.03% MC
89 USA Mackenzie Hughes 739 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 85.5/1) 0.14% 0.11% 0.99% 0.88% T61
90 ENG Benjamin Taylor 748 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.3/1) 0.13% 0.11% 1.04% 0.93% T53
91 AUS Aaron Baddeley 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.3% 0.19% T34
92 RSA Thriston Lawrence 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% 0.23% 0.12% MC
93 USA Chez Reavie 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.17% 0.06% MC
94 USA Charley Hoffman 777 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.7/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.14% 0.03% MC
95 USA David Lipsky 787 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.6/1) 0.13% 0.1% 0.54% 0.43% T65
96 USA Webb Simpson 825 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 92.7/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.14% 0.04% T24
97 USA Zach Johnson 883 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 97.4/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.35% 0.26% T68
98 USA Adam Schenk 940 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.37% 0.29% T31
99 USA Trey Mullinax 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.79% 0.71% T8
100 ENG Callum Tarren 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.5% 0.41% MC
101 ENG Luke Donald 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.46% 0.38% T39
102 USA Lucas Glover 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.41% 0.33% MC
103 USA Greyson Sigg 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.36% 0.28% T61
104 USA Stewart Cink 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.34% 0.25% MC
105 USA Matthew NeSmith 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.33% 0.24% T39
106 USA Kevin Streelman 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.22% MC
107 USA Justin Lower 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.3% 0.21% MC
108 USA Ryan Palmer 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.28% 0.19% T53
109 SCO Martin Laird 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.27% 0.19% T39
110 USA Troy Merritt 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.26% 0.17% MC
111 USA Kevin Kisner 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% MC
112 USA Pierceson Coody 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.16% 0.08% T14
113 SWE Ludvig Aberg 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.15% 0.06% T24
114 USA Tyson Alexander 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 1.28% 1.23% MC
115 USA Kyle Westmoreland 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.31% 0.26% T39
116 USA Greg Koch 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.05% T68
117 USA Kamaiu Johnson 5000 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.07% 0.05%
118 CAN Taylor Pendrith 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
119 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T24
120 USA Davis Thompson 0% 0% 0% 0% T53

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 8.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.4% 3.9%
2 Coral 10 @ 1/5 75.5% 16.3%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 55.6% 18.6%
4 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 79.1% 18.7%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 57.8% 20.3%
6 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 58% 20.5%
7 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 40% 23.5%
8 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 23.8%
9 Betway 8 @ 1/5 64.4% 25.4%
10 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 43.4% 26.4%
11 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 90.9% 26.5%
12 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 70.3% 29.9%
13 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 52.4% 34.4%
14 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 52.4% 34.4%
15 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 53% 34.9%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 50.6% 35.1%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 54.5% 36.3%
18 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 55.1% 39.2%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 55.2% 39.3%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 61.7% 42.6%
21 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 66.3% 49.2%
22 888Sport 1 @ 1/1 54.5% 54.4%