Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 24.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 89.0

Total Profit: -11.1

DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP, DUBAI

17/11/2022 - 20/11/2022

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 3 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 25% 22.58% 0.37% -22.21% 4
2 ESP Jon Rahm 5 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 16.67% 15.05% 0.54% -14.51% 1
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 10 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 9.09% 8.21% 0.76% -7.45% T23
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 10.6 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 3/1) 8.62% 7.79% 0.69% -7.09% T5
5 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 16 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.31% 1% -4.32% T5
6 IRL Shane Lowry 16.4 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 4.1/1) 5.75% 5.19% 0.56% -4.63% T23
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 23 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 5.2/1) 4.17% 3.76% 0.88% -2.89% T2 (tied w/2) 15.38 +47.3
8 SWE Alexander Noren 30 (Ladbrokes: 6 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.91% 1.37% -1.54% T2 (tied w/2) 11.91 +41.7
9 AUS Minwoo Lee 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.91% 1.26% -1.65% T12 11.91
10 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 33 (Ladbrokes: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.66% 2.58% -0.07% T7 10.86
11 NZL Ryan Fox 33 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.6/1) 2.94% 2.66% 1.45% -1.21% 19 10.86
12 ENG Jordan L Smith 35 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.9/1) 2.78% 2.51% 2.59% 0.08% T30 10.26
13 USA Kurt Kitayama 39 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.5/1) 2.5% 2.26% 1.49% -0.76% T42 9.23
14 SCO Robert MacIntyre 45 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.3/1) 2.17% 1.96% 2.59% 0.63% T34 8.03
15 FRA Antoine Rozner 90 (Betfred: 1 @ 1/1) 1.1% 0.99% 2.6% 1.61% T34 4.06
16 POL Adrian Meronk 90 (Betfred: 1 @ 1/1) 1.1% 0.99% 1.68% 0.69% T7 4.06
17 ENG Sam Horsfield 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.85% 0.64% -0.21% T16 3.49
18 MAS Gavin Green 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.67% 2.73% 2.06% T20
19 ESP Adrian Otaegui 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.67% 2.3% 1.63% T16
20 ENG Eddie Pepperell 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.67% 2.29% 1.62% T34
21 RSA Thriston Lawrence 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.63% 2.83% 2.2% 41
22 FRA Victor Perez 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.59% 2.39% 1.8% T12
23 SCO Ewen Ferguson 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.5% 2.83% 2.33% T42
24 GER Yannik Paul 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.5% 2.2% 1.7% T23
25 ESP Adria Arnaus 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.47% 1.69% 1.22% T9
26 ENG Richard Mansell 201 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.7/1) 0.5% 0.45% 2.33% 1.89% T28
27 ENG Callum Shinkwin 211 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.7/1) 0.47% 0.43% 1.83% 1.41% T23
28 ITA Guido Migliozzi 220 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.6/1) 0.45% 0.41% 2.51% 2.1% T23
29 SCO Richie Ramsay 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.39% 2.75% 2.36% T16
30 GER Marcel Schneider 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.38% 2.56% 2.19% T34
31 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 2.78% 2.45% T30
32 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 268 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.8/1) 0.37% 0.34% 2.23% 1.89% T34
33 IND Shubhankar Sharma 277 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.8/1) 0.36% 0.32% 2.64% 2.32% T44
34 ENG Paul Waring 287 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.9/1) 0.35% 0.31% 2.28% 1.97% T30
35 GER Hurly Long 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.3% 2.25% 1.95%
36 ENG Richard Bland 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.3% 1.38% 1.08% T44
37 FRA Romain Langasque 316 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46/1) 0.32% 0.28% 2.65% 2.37% T20
38 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.26% 2.78% 2.52% 46
39 RSA Oliver Bekker 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.26% 2.37% 2.11% T34
40 SCO Connor Syme 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.22% 2.75% 2.53% T12
41 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 412 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.8/1) 0.24% 0.22% 1.88% 1.66% T34
42 CHN Hao Tong Li 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.2% 0.86% 0.66% T30
43 CHN Wu Ashun 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.19% 2.18% 1.99% T28
44 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.19% 1.5% 1.32% T47
45 GER Maximilian Kieffer 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.18% 2.28% 2.1% 11
46 SWE Joakim Lagergren 517 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.9/1) 0.19% 0.17% 2.79% 2.62% T12
47 ESP Jorge Campillo 537 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.17% 2.51% 2.34% T9
48 FRA Matthieu Pavon 556 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.5/1) 0.18% 0.16% 2.82% 2.66%
49 SCO David Law 729 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.7/1) 0.14% 0.12% 2.34% 2.22% T20
50 ENG Oliver Wilson 796 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.3/1) 0.13% 0.11% 2.41% 2.3% T47

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 7.9% 7.9%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.8% 18.6%
3 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 38.7% 21.2%
4 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 37.3% 21.3%
5 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 38.9% 21.3%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 6 @ 1/5 38.3% 22.1%
7 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 38.3% 22.1%
8 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 38.6% 22.4%
9 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 23.1%
10 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 23.1%
11 Betway 6 @ 1/5 40.7% 24.1%
12 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 42.2% 24.3%
13 Ladbrokes 6 @ 1/5 41.1% 24.5%
14 Coral 6 @ 1/5 41.1% 24.5%
15 Betfred 1 @ 1/1 24.8% 24.8%
16 Unibet 5 @ 1/5 34.1% 29.4%
17 BetUK 5 @ 1/5 34.1% 29.4%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 30.2%
19 VBet 5 @ 1/4 50% 31%
20 Boyle Sports 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 31.4%
21 Spreadex 5 @ 1/5 39.8% 35%
22 QuinnBet 5 @ 1/5 39.8% 35%