Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 11.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 32.3

Total Profit: -67.8

Mallorca Golf Open

20/10/2022 - 23/10/2022

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 12 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 6.54% 0.98% -5.55% T30
2 NZL Ryan Fox 16 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.88% 5% 0.58% -4.42% T4
3 ESP Adrian Otaegui 18 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.47% 0.73% -3.74% T47
4 ENG Eddie Pepperell 22 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.69% 0.71% -2.99% T30
5 ENG Richard Mansell 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.27% 1.16% -2.11% T11
6 GER Yannik Paul 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.93% 0.93% -2% 1
7 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 33 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.5% 1.06% -1.44% T16
8 ENG Andy Sullivan 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.5% 0.84% -1.66% T16
9 GER Marcel Schneider 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 2.36% 0.96% -1.41% T23
10 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 35 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 6.9/1) 2.78% 2.36% 0.82% -1.54% T16
11 RSA Erik van Rooyen 40 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.07% 0.1% -1.97% MC
12 SCO Richie Ramsay 41 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.7/1) 2.38% 2.02% 1.03% -0.99% T16
13 SCO Connor Syme 45 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.85% 0.91% -0.93% T23
14 SWE Joakim Lagergren 55 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.52% 1.09% -0.43%
15 SCO Ewen Ferguson 55 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.52% 1.01% -0.5% T9
16 FRA Romain Langasque 55 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.52% 0.93% -0.59% MC
17 ENG Matthew Jordan 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.35% 0.94% -0.41% T43
18 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.35% 0.84% -0.51% T52
19 RSA Wilco Nienaber 62 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.4/1) 1.59% 1.35% 0.81% -0.54% MC
20 MAS Gavin Green 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 0.86% -0.4% T11
21 GER Hurly Long 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 0.7% -0.57% T9
22 RSA Louis de Jager 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.25% 1.14% -0.11% T43 5.54
23 ENG Matthew Southgate 67 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.1/1) 1.47% 1.25% 0.96% -0.29% T30
24 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 70 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.2% 0.85% -0.34% T37
25 ENG Marcus Armitage 72 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.8/1) 1.37% 1.16% 0.96% -0.21% T6
26 SCO Scott Jamieson 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.12% 1.04% -0.08% T30 4.96
27 ENG Paul Waring 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.12% 0.55% -0.56% T2
28 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1.13% 0.08% T66 4.65
29 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1.09% 0.04% T70 4.65
30 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.05% 1.06% 0.01% T47 4.65
31 AUT Lukas Nemecz 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.05% 1.02% -0.03% T11 4.65
32 FRA Julien Brun 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 1% -0.04% T37 4.65
33 ENG Tom Lewis 80 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 0.96% -0.09% T37 4.65
34 SCO Grant Forrest 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.05% 0.92% -0.13% T52 4.65
35 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.05% 0.82% -0.23% T37
36 AUS Jason Scrivener 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.05% 0.63% -0.42% MC
37 NED Darius Van Driel 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.99% 1.02% 0.03% T37 4.38
38 USA Johannes Veerman 85 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.5/1) 1.16% 0.99% 0.93% -0.06% T11 4.38
39 GER Maximilian Kieffer 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.89% 1.01% 0.12% T58 3.93
40 CHN Wu Ashun 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.89% 0.94% 0.06% T16 3.93
41 WAL Jamie Donaldson 95 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.8/1) 1.04% 0.89% 0.7% -0.19% MC
42 POR Ricardo Gouveia 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 1.14% 0.3% T16 3.73
43 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 0.93% 0.09% MC 3.73
44 RSA Justin Walters 100 (Betway: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 0.67% -0.17% T43 3.73
45 NED Joost Luiten 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.8% 1.12% 0.31% T30 3.56
46 GER Marcel Siem 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.8% 1.04% 0.23% MC 3.56
47 DEN Jeff Winther 105 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.1/1) 0.94% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% T6 3.56
48 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.73% 1.07% 0.34% T52 3.25
49 ESP Nacho Elvira 115 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.3/1) 0.86% 0.73% 1% 0.26% MC 3.25
50 ENG Dale Whitnell 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.89% 0.2% T4 (tied w/2) 3.04 +32.3
51 THA Jazz Janewattananond 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.78% 0.1% T6 3.04
52 ARG Daniel Vancsik 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.69% 0.01% -0.68%
53 FRA Julien Guerrier 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.67% -0.01% MC 2.99
54 ENG Jack Senior 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 0.64% -0.04% T23 2.99
55 ITA Renato Paratore 133 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.4/1) 0.75% 0.63% 1.14% 0.51% T23
56 ENG Daniel Gavins 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.59% 1.09% 0.5% MC
57 ITA Francesco Laporta 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.59% 1.08% 0.49% MC
58 NOR Espen Kofstad 143 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.5/1) 0.69% 0.59% 0.7% 0.11% T58
59 SCO Stephen Gallacher 150 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 1.09% 0.53%
60 FRA Frederic LaCroix 153 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.6/1) 0.65% 0.55% 0.79% 0.24% MC
61 ESP Santiago Tarrio 163 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.7/1) 0.61% 0.52% 0.01% -0.51%
62 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.49% 0.96% 0.47% MC
63 SWE Niklas Lemke 172 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.7/1) 0.58% 0.49% 0.9% 0.41% 72
64 ENG Ben Stow 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.48% 0.33% -0.16% MC
65 FRA Victor Dubuisson 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.94% 0.47%
66 ENG Andrew Wilson 181 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.7/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.92% 0.45% MC
67 ESP Pep Angles Ros 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.44% 1.04% 0.6% T58
68 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 191 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.7/1) 0.52% 0.44% 0.78% 0.34% T16
69 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 1.11% 0.69% T2
70 RSA Brandon Stone 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.8% 0.38% 74
71 ESP Alvaro Quiros 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.37% 0.97% 0.6% T30
72 AUS Maverick Antcliff 229 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.5/1) 0.43% 0.37% 0.95% 0.58% T70
73 NED Daan Huizing 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.35% 1.02% 0.66% T23
74 SCO Craig Howie 239 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.5/1) 0.42% 0.35% 0.95% 0.6% MC
75 USA Chase Hanna 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.98% 0.65% T23
76 ENG Garrick Porteous 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% 0.59% 0.25% MC
77 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 259 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.8/1) 0.38% 0.33% 1.08% 0.75% MC
78 ENG David Horsey 297 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44/1) 0.34% 0.29% 1.02% 0.74% MC
79 ENG Ashley Chesters 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 1.1% 0.81% T47
80 SCO Marc Warren 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% 1.02% 0.74% T30
81 KOR Taehee Lee 325 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.01% -0.25% MC
82 FRA Benjamin Hebert 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.11% 0.86% MC
83 SWE Rikard Karlberg 345 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.1/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.04% 0.79% MC
84 ENG Ross McGowan 350 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% 0.84% 0.6% MC
85 ESP Alejandro Canizares 355 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.1/1) 0.28% 0.24% 1.02% 0.79% T37
86 RSA Darren Fichardt 441 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.7/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.99% 0.8% T66
87 USA Julian Suri 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.96% 0.77% MC
88 WAL Oliver Farr 451 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.74% 0.55% MC
89 IND Shubhankar Sharma 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 1.02% 0.84% T52
90 RSA Richard Sterne 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.75% 0.58% T58
91 GER Sebastian Heisele 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.59% 0.42% MC
92 CAN Aaron Cockerill 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% 0.69% 0.52% T58
93 FRA Robin Roussel 595 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.85% 0.71% T58
94 FRA Joel Stalter 600 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% 0.88% 0.73% MC
95 POR Ricardo Santos 623 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 75.5/1) 0.16% 0.14% 1.04% 0.91% T66
96 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.12% 1.02% 0.9% T23
97 ENG Steven Brown 681 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80.6/1) 0.15% 0.12% 0.99% 0.87% T58
98 AUS Scott Hend 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 1.02% 0.9% T11
99 SCO David Drysdale 719 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.9% 0.78% T52
100 CHI Hugo Leon 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.08% 0.99% T47
101 ENG Jack Singh Brar 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.98% 0.89% MC
102 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.82% 0.73% T43
103 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.76% 0.68% MC
104 ENG David Coupland 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.69% 0.6% MC
105 ENG Chris Wood 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.69% 0.6% T58
106 ENG Richard McEvoy 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.67% 0.59% MC
107 AUT Niklas Regner 959 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 103.5/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.08% MC
108 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 1.08% 1% MC
109 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.94% 0.85% MC
110 CZE Ondrej Lieser 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.91% 0.83%
111 FRA Gregory Bourdy 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.88% 0.79% T66
112 ENG Oliver Fisher 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.85% 0.76% MC
113 NIR Cormac Sharvin 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.68% 0.59%
114 SWE Richard S. Johnson 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.01% -0.08%
115 ENG Graeme Storm 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.79% 0.73% MC
116 ENG David Howell 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.76% 0.7% 73
117 ESP Sebastain George Garcia Grout 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.01% -0.05% MC
118 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T52
119 ESP Carlos Pigem 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
120 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T47
121 ENG Matt Ford 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
122 IRL Niall Kearney 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
123 Diego Dupin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
124 Jamie Mann 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
125 Philip Salva Montulet 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 11.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 5.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 10.2% 10.2%
2 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 37.2% 20.6%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 25%
4 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 26.4%
5 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 43.7% 26.4%
6 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 54.1% 26.6%
7 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 26.7%
8 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 46.8% 31.5%
9 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 49% 33.4%
10 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 63.1% 34.1%
11 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 63.1% 34.1%
12 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 35.3%
13 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 54% 35.5%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.1%
15 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 52% 36.1%
16 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 53.3% 37.3%
17 Betway 6 @ 1/5 55.8% 39.5%
18 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 56.8% 40.4%
19 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 72.3% 41.6%
20 Coral 7 @ 1/5 72.3% 41.6%
21 VBet 1 @ 1/1 49.8% 49.8%