Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 12.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 315.0

Total Profit: +214.9

Italian Open

15/09/2022 - 18/09/2022

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 4 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 20% 17.28% 0.49% -16.79% 4
2 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 10 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 9.09% 7.85% 0.39% -7.46% 2
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 12 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 6.65% 0.28% -6.37% T34
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 20 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 4.11% 0.41% -3.7% 8
5 ITA Francesco Molinari 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.76% 0.2% -3.56% T34
6 POL Adrian Meronk 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.54% 0.38% -2.16% MC
7 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.69% 0.89% -0.81% T27 7.55
8 ENG Richard Mansell 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.69% 0.79% -0.9% MC
9 USA Kurt Kitayama 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.69% 0.56% -1.13% 7
10 ENG Jordan L Smith 50 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.69% 0.38% -1.31% T12
11 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 53 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.1/1) 1.85% 1.6% 1.13% -0.47% MC 7.13
12 AUS Minwoo Lee 55 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.54% 0.23% -1.31% MC
13 SCO Robert MacIntyre 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.35% 0.72% -0.63% 1 6.02 +233.4
14 FRA Antoine Rozner 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 1.06% -0.23% T16 5.75
15 FRA Victor Perez 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.29% 0.84% -0.45% 3 5.75 +40.8
16 ENG Aaron Rai 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.29% 0.41% -0.88% T5 (tied w/2) 5.75 +40.8
17 AUS Lucas Herbert 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 0.39% -0.9% T5
18 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.07% 1.08% 0.01% T34 4.76
19 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.07% 0.54% -0.53% T27 4.76
20 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.07% 0.53% -0.54% MC 4.76
21 ENG Callum Shinkwin 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.07% 0.38% -0.69% T61 4.76
22 ENG Eddie Pepperell 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 0.98% 0.78% -0.2% T12 4.38
23 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.88% 0.97% 0.09% MC 3.93
24 RSA George Coetzee 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.86% 1.01% 0.15% MC 3.82
25 USA John Catlin 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.86% 0.77% -0.08% MC 3.82
26 RSA Hennie Du Plessis 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.86% 0.47% -0.39% 3.82
27 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 100 (William Hill: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.86% 0.3% -0.56% WD 3.82
28 USA Johannes Veerman 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.8% 0.64% -0.16% MC 3.57
29 ESP Adrian Otaegui 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.8% 0.28% -0.52% T25 3.57
30 SWE Alexander Bjork 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.73% 0.99% 0.26% T34 3.27
31 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.69% 0.89% 0.21% MC 3.06
32 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.69% 0.39% -0.3% T61 3.06
33 ENG Andy Sullivan 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.68% 0.97% 0.29% T41 3.04
34 SCO Scott Jamieson 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 1.13% 0.5% T16
35 ITA Francesco Laporta 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 1.08% 0.45% MC
36 ENG Matthew Southgate 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 0.96% 0.33% T27
37 FRA Romain Langasque 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.63% 0.89% 0.26% T41
38 ENG Marcus Armitage 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.59% 0.95% 0.37% 76
39 ITA Edoardo Molinari 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.59% 0.95% 0.36% T27
40 ESP Jorge Campillo 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.59% 0.87% 0.28% T9
41 FIN Mikko Korhonen 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.59% 0.74% 0.15% 11
42 GER Marcel Schneider 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.59% 0.68% 0.1% T16
43 NED Wil Besseling 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.89% 0.32% MC
44 USA Sean Crocker 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 0.83% 0.26% MC
45 GER Maximilian Kieffer 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.55% 0.56% 0.01% MC
46 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.55% 0.36% -0.19% T16
47 AUS Jason Scrivener 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.55% 0.22% -0.33% T55
48 GER Yannik Paul 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.55% 0.06% -0.49% T27
49 NED Joost Luiten 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.52% 0.95% 0.43% T67
50 RSA Louis de Jager 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.52% 0.77% 0.25% T41
51 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.46% 0.7% 0.23% T50
52 SCO Grant Forrest 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.44% 0.77% 0.33% MC
53 FIN Sami Valimaki 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.43% 0% MC
54 ARG Daniel Vancsik 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.01% -0.42%
55 SWE Marcus Kinhult 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 1.09% 0.67% MC
56 FRA Julien Brun 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 0.89% 0.47% T55
57 NED Daan Huizing 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 0.73% 0.31% MC
58 ENG Paul Waring 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 0.66% 0.24% WD
59 NOR Espen Kofstad 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 0.15% -0.27% T74
60 RSA Oliver Bekker 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.4% 0.53% 0.13% T9
61 SCO David Law 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.78% 0.39% MC
62 MAS Gavin Green 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.72% 0.34% T34
63 RSA Justin Walters 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.35% 0.64% 0.29% T61
64 FIN Kalle Samooja 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.34% 0.93% 0.59% T41
65 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.34% 0.74% 0.4% T23
66 ENG Ross Fisher 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.71% 0.38% MC
67 RSA Zander Lombard 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.32% 0.68% 0.37% MC
68 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.29% 0.92% 0.63% MC
69 RSA Brandon Stone 300 (William Hill: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.68% 0.4% T55
70 SCO Craig Howie 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.53% 0.24% MC
71 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.27% -0.01% T12
72 ESP Nacho Elvira 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.01% 0.76% MC
73 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.97% 0.72% T61
74 FRA Victor Dubuisson 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.83% 0.58% MC
75 GER Marcel Siem 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.63% 0.38% MC
76 AUT Lukas Nemecz 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.61% 0.36% T55
77 USA Chase Hanna 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.54% 0.28% MC
78 ENG Tom Lewis 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.9% 0.66% T16
79 ENG Luke Donald 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.69% 0.46% T34
80 WAL Oliver Farr 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.44% 0.2% MC
81 THA Jazz Janewattananond 391 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.17% -0.05% MC
82 ENG Ross McGowan 400 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.22% 0.72% 0.5% T27
83 CHN Wu Ashun 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.92% 0.73% T50
84 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.92% 0.72% T50
85 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.68% 0.49% WD
86 SWE Joakim Lagergren 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 1.05% 0.86% MC
87 IND Shubhankar Sharma 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 1% 0.81% MC
88 RSA Darren Fichardt 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.96% 0.77% T41
89 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.96% 0.77% MC
90 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 450 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 59.6/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.9% 0.71% MC
91 ESP Santiago Tarrio 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.01% -0.16%
92 ENG Garrick Porteous 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.57% 0.39% MC
93 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.95% 0.77% MC
94 ITA Filippo Celli 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.93% 0.76% T61
95 FRA Benjamin Hebert 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.75% 0.57% MC
96 ENG Daniel Gavins 538 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 1.04% 0.88% MC
97 IRL Niall Kearney 538 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 67.8/1) 0.19% 0.16% 0.73% 0.57% T71
98 ENG Dale Whitnell 587 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.3/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.72% 0.57% T12
99 SWE Niklas Lemke 597 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.83% 0.68% MC
100 POR Ricardo Gouveia 636 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.7/1) 0.16% 0.14% 0.99% 0.86% MC
101 ENG Ashley Chesters 646 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.81% 0.67% MC
102 ENG Robert Rock 744 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86/1) 0.13% 0.12% 0.41% 0.29% T50
103 AUS Maverick Antcliff 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% 0.78% 0.66% T55
104 FRA Robin Roussel 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.12% 0.68% 0.56% T50
105 ESP Alvaro Quiros 793 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.66% 0.56% T41
106 USA Julian Suri 800 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.11% 0.86% 0.75% MC
107 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 832 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 93.3/1) 0.12% 0.1% 1.02% 0.92% MC
108 RSA Richard Sterne 832 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 93.3/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.71% 0.6% WD
109 ESP Alejandro Canizares 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.11% 1.02%
110 SWE Rikard Karlberg 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.09% 1.01% T61
111 SCO Stephen Gallacher 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.02% 0.93% MC
112 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.02% 0.93% T55
113 SCO Marc Warren 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.95% 0.86% T71
114 POR Ricardo Santos 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.8% 0.71% 73
115 CHI Hugo Leon 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.77% 0.68% MC
116 ESP Pep Angles Ros 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.73% 0.64% MC
117 ENG Steven Brown 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.7% 0.61% MC
118 SUI Joel Girrbach 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.67% 0.58% MC
119 ENG Andrew Wilson 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.59% 0.5% T16
120 ENG Richard McEvoy 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.48% 0.39% MC
121 SCO David Drysdale 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 1.12% 1.03% MC
122 ESP Carlos Pigem 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.86% 0.77% MC
123 AUS Zach Murray 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.85% 0.76% MC
124 FRA Gregory Havret 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.81% 0.72% T41
125 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.75% 0.67% MC
126 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.71% 0.63% MC
127 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (William Hill: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.71% 0.62% MC
128 ENG Chris Wood 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.68% 0.59% 77
129 ENG David Coupland 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.4% 0.32% MC
130 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.07% T27
131 ITA Luca Cianchetti 1000 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.07% MC
132 ITA Giovanni Manzoni 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.07% MC
133 ITA Stefano Mazzoli 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.07% T67
134 ITA Gregorio De Leo 1000 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.01% -0.07% MC
135 ENG Chris Paisley 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% 0.95% 0.88% WD
136 ENG Oliver Fisher 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% 0.7% 0.63% MC
137 SWE Jesper Kennegard 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.85% 0.79% T23
138 RSA Haydn Porteous 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.83% 0.78% MC
139 ENG Matt Ford 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.82% 0.77% T41
140 NIR Cormac Sharvin 1500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 0.59% 0.53% MC
141 CHN Zhang Hui-lin 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.01% -0.05%
142 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.95% 0.9% MC
143 DEN Thomas Bjorn 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.81% 0.77% T25
144 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 2000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.64% 0.6%
145 FRA Julien Quesne 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.01% -0.03% WD
146 ITA Andrea Saracino 2000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.01% -0.03% MC
147 ITA Jacopo Vecchi Fossa 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.01% -0.02% MC
148 ITA Giacomo Fortini 2500 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.01% -0.02%
149 ENG David Howell 3000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.03% 0.03% 0.58% 0.55% T69
150 USA Clancy Waugh 5000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% -0.01% MC
151 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 0% 0% 0% 0% T34
152 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T41
154 ENG Lee Slattery 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% T16
156 IRL Paul Dunne 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
157 CHN Zhang Huilin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
158 ITA Andrea Romano(June2000) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
159 ITA Manfredi Manica 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
160 Flavio Michetti 0% 0% 0% 0% T69
161 Marco Florioli 0% 0% 0% 0% T74

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 12.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 3.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 15.5% 15.5%
2 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 37.3% 21.6%
3 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 37.3% 21.6%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 39.1% 23.2%
5 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 41% 25%
6 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 41.6% 25.5%
7 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 52.7% 26.5%
8 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 48.4% 31.5%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 61.4% 33.8%
10 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 52.4% 35%
11 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52.6% 37.9%
12 BetUK 6 @ 1/5 52.6% 37.9%
13 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 67.1% 38.7%
14 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 67.1% 38.7%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 54.2% 39.2%
16 VBet 5 @ 1/4 59.4% 41.1%
17 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 58.2% 42.7%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 66.4% 50.4%