Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 6.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -4.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 9.5

Total Profit: -90.6

BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

08/09/2022 - 11/09/2022

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 5 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 16.67% 13.96% 0.62% -13.34% T2
2 ESP Jon Rahm 7 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 12.5% 10.47% 0.51% -9.95% T2
3 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.44% 0.58% -5.86% T42
4 IRL Shane Lowry 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.58% 0.47% -5.11% 1
5 NOR Viktor Hovland 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.99% 0.47% -3.52% T5
6 AUS Adam Scott 25 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.22% 0.38% -2.84% T42
7 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 28 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.89% 0.35% -2.54% T57
8 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 30 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.7% 0.39% -2.31% T57
9 USA Talor Gooch 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.46% 0.15% -2.31% 4
10 MEX Abraham Ancer 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.33% 0.13% -2.19% T18
11 USA Billy Horschel 36 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.1/1) 2.7% 2.26% 0.43% -1.83% T9 9.71
12 BEL Thomas Pieters 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.04% 0.32% -1.72% T23 8.77
13 RSA Branden Grace 60 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.37% 0.07% -1.3% MC 5.89
14 USA Patrick Reed 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.31% 0.15% -1.16% T5 (tied w/4) 5.62 +9.5
15 SCO Robert MacIntyre 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 0.56% -0.69% T50 5.37
16 ENG Justin Rose 66 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.25% 0.24% -1.01% WD 5.37
17 ENG Jordan L Smith 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 0.23% -1.02% MC 5.37
18 ENG Lee Westwood 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.25% 0.05% -1.2% T13 5.37
19 ENG Danny Willett 70 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.18% 0.47% -0.71% MC 5.07
20 ENG Eddie Pepperell 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.03% 1.07% 0.03% T32 4.44
21 RSA Dean Burmester 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 0.95% 0.11% -0.84% MC 4.09
22 SCO Ewen Ferguson 90 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.92% 1.2% 0.28% MC 3.95
23 FRA Victor Perez 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.92% 0.6% -0.32% T50 3.95
24 ENG Aaron Rai 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.92% 0.27% -0.65% MC 3.95
25 ESP Sergio Garcia 92 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.4/1) 1.08% 0.9% 0.13% -0.77% WD 3.87
26 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 100 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.83% 1.23% 0.41% T13 3.56
27 ENG Matt Wallace 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.83% 0.57% -0.26% MC 3.56
28 USA Kurt Kitayama 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.75% 0.75% -0.01% T32 3.24
29 NZL Ryan Fox 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.71% 0.56% -0.15% WD 3.05
30 POL Adrian Meronk 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.71% 0.4% -0.31% T32 3.05
31 ENG Sam Horsfield 125 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.66% 0.13% -0.53% T18 2.86
32 AUS Lucas Herbert 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.61% 0.26% -0.35% MC
33 ITA Francesco Molinari 136 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.7/1) 0.73% 0.61% 0.09% -0.53% T9
34 FRA Antoine Rozner 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.57% 0.88% 0.31% T50
35 SWE Marcus Kinhult 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 1.18% 0.62% MC
36 AUS Minwoo Lee 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.55% 0.11% -0.45% T42
37 ESP Adria Arnaus 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.53% 0.55% 0.02% MC
38 RSA Thriston Lawrence 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.5% 1.06% 0.56% MC
39 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.5% 0.59% 0.09% T18
40 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.5% 0.09% -0.41% T23
41 BEL Thomas Detry 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.48% 0.07% -0.41% T5
42 SWE Alexander Bjork 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.43% 0.52% 0.09% MC
43 ITA Francesco Laporta 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.42% 1.18% 0.77% MC
44 SCO Richie Ramsay 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.41% 0.79% 0.38% T57
45 FIN Mikko Korhonen 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.29% -0.1% MC
46 ENG Laurie Canter 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.28% -0.1% MC
47 ENG Callum Shinkwin 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.13% -0.26% T68
48 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.34% 0.39% 0.05% MC
49 GER Maximilian Kieffer 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.33% 0.3% -0.03% T65
50 USA John Catlin 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.32% 1.35% 1.04% MC
51 ENG Matthew Jordan 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.32% 1% 0.69% T23
52 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 283 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.4/1) 0.35% 0.29% 0.05% -0.25% MC
53 DEN Marcus Helligkilde 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.28% 1.05% 0.77% MC
54 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.28% 0.58% 0.3% MC
55 CHN Hao Tong Li 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.28% 0.14% -0.14% MC
56 RSA Justin Harding 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.2% -0.08% T23
57 ENG Andy Sullivan 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 1.07% 0.8% T32
58 SCO Connor Syme 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.97% 0.71% T68
59 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.3% 0.03% T32
60 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 1.1% 0.84% T18
61 FRA Romain Langasque 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.96% 0.7% T57
62 ESP Adrian Otaegui 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.12% -0.13% T13
63 FIN Sami Valimaki 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.24% 0.1% -0.14% MC
64 IND Shubhankar Sharma 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 1.05% 0.81% MC
65 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.24% 0.24% 0.01% T9
66 GER Hurly Long 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.08% -0.16% MC
67 ENG Ian Poulter 362 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 50.8/1) 0.28% 0.23% 0.23% 0% T32
68 USA Sean Crocker 371 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.7/1) 0.27% 0.23% 0.53% 0.3% MC
69 ENG Ross Fisher 391 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.7/1) 0.26% 0.21% 1.21% 0.99% MC
70 ENG Matthew Southgate 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.21% 1.04% 0.84% T13
71 SCO Scott Jamieson 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.21% 1.01% 0.8% T50
72 NOR Kristian Krogh Johannessen 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.83% 0.62% T32
73 ESP Jorge Campillo 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.19% -0.02% T32
74 ITA Edoardo Molinari 420 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.6/1) 0.24% 0.2% 1.09% 0.9% T65
75 SCO David Law 430 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.6/1) 0.23% 0.19% 1.05% 0.85% T50
76 ENG Marcus Armitage 430 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.6/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.87% 0.68% T57
77 USA Johannes Veerman 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.19% 0.66% 0.47% T23
78 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.18% 1.22% 1.04% MC
79 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.97% 0.79% MC
80 RSA Garrick Higgo 469 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.4/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.06% -0.11% MC
81 NED Joost Luiten 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 1.04% 0.87% T23
82 RSA George Coetzee 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 1% 0.83% T32
83 RSA Justin Walters 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.46% 0.29% T57
84 NIR Graeme McDowell 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.07% -0.11% T50
85 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 1.53% 1.36% MC
86 ITA Guido Migliozzi 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 1.23% 1.07% T13
87 ENG Richard Bland 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.19% 0.02% T23
88 ESP Alejandro Canizares 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 1.59% 1.42% MC
89 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 1.22% 1.05% MC
90 ENG Jack Senior 558 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 1.35% 1.2% T57
91 AUS Jason Scrivener 558 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% 0.1% -0.05% T42
92 ENG Oliver Wilson 587 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.3/1) 0.17% 0.14% 1.38% 1.24% T23
93 NED Wil Besseling 587 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.3/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.98% 0.84% T42
94 FRA Julien Brun 597 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.95% 0.81% 71
95 WAL Jamie Donaldson 597 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 73.2/1) 0.17% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% MC
96 ESP Nacho Elvira 646 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.13% 1.05% 0.92% MC
97 ENG Luke Donald 646 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 77.5/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.72% 0.59% MC
98 FRA Julien Guerrier 656 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.4/1) 0.15% 0.13% 1.11% 0.98% MC
99 FIN Kalle Samooja 656 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.4/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.82% 0.69% MC
100 SCO Grant Forrest 665 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.2/1) 0.15% 0.13% 1.36% 1.23% T23
101 SWE Joakim Lagergren 695 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 81.8/1) 0.14% 0.12% 1.53% 1.41% T50
102 POR Ricardo Gouveia 734 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 85.1/1) 0.14% 0.11% 1.5% 1.38% MC
103 ENG James Morrison 744 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86/1) 0.13% 0.11% 1.18% 1.07% T57
104 RSA Brandon Stone 744 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.2% 0.09% MC
105 ENG Daniel Gavins 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.22% 1.1% T42
106 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 750 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 1.17% 1.06% MC
107 FRA Matthieu Pavon 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 1.43% 1.33% T9
108 DEN Jeff Winther 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 1.1% 0.99% MC
109 CHN Wu Ashun 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.99% 0.88% MC
110 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.97% 0.87% WD
111 RSA Darren Fichardt 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.92% 0.81% MC
112 ENG Dale Whitnell 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.81% 0.71% MC
113 ARG Daniel Vancsik 793 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.02% -0.09%
114 THA Jazz Janewattananond 812 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.6/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.06% -0.04% MC
115 FRA Victor Dubuisson 822 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 92.4/1) 0.12% 0.1% 1.4% 1.3% MC
116 FRA Frederic LaCroix 842 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 94.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 1.28% 1.18% T65
117 ENG David Horsey 852 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 94.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% 1.21% 1.11% T18
118 ESP Santiago Tarrio 861 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.6/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.02% -0.08%
119 ITA Nino Bertasio 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.43% 1.34%
120 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.39% 1.31% T5
121 SWE Rikard Karlberg 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.21% 1.13% MC
122 NED Darius Van Driel 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 1.04% 0.96% MC
123 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.8% 0.71% MC
124 RSA Richard Sterne 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.76% 0.68% MC
125 RSA Shaun Norris 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.12% 0.04% 72
126 AUS Wade Ormsby 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.04% -0.05% MC
127 THA Thongchai Jaidee 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% 0.02% -0.07% MC
128 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.45% 1.36%
129 SCO Stephen Gallacher 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 1.43% 1.34% MC
130 SCO David Drysdale 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.1% 1.02% MC
131 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.05% 0.96% MC
132 SCO Marc Warren 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 1.01% 0.93% MC
133 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.95% 0.87% MC
134 AUS Scott Hend 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.95% 0.87% T32
135 ENG Steven Brown 1000 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.85% 0.76% MC
136 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.82% 0.73% MC
137 ENG Chris Wood 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.63% 0.54% MC
138 AUS Maverick Antcliff 1500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% 1.36% 1.3% T42
139 ENG Chris Paisley 1500 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% 0.95% 0.89% MC
140 ENG Jack Singh Brar 2000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 1.4% 1.36% MC
141 SCO Greig Hutcheon 2500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% -0.01% MC
142 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T68
143 ESP Pablo Martin Benavides 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 RSA Oliver Bekker 0% 0% 0% 0% T42
145 GER Matthias Schmid 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 6.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -4.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 38.9% 5.8%
2 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 6.7% 6.7%
3 Bet365 6 @ 1/4 44.9% 15.5%
4 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 54.6% 18.2%
5 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 61.8% 23.7%
6 Betway 8 @ 1/5 63.4% 24.9%
7 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 41.9% 25.4%
8 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 64.5% 25.7%
9 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 64.5% 25.7%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 43.4% 26.7%
11 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 53.6% 27%
12 BetUK 7 @ 1/5 53.6% 27%
13 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 44.5% 27.6%
14 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 44.5% 27.6%
15 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 94.3% 29.2%
16 VBet 7 @ 1/5 58.6% 31.1%
17 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 71.9% 31.3%
18 Coral 8 @ 1/5 71.9% 31.3%
19 QuinnBet 7 @ 1/5 64.6% 36%
20 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 57% 38.7%
21 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 60.3% 41.7%
22 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 63% 46.7%