Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.3 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 28.7

Total Profit: -71.4

BMW Championship

18/08/2022 - 21/08/2022

Up to date as of: one year ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 10 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 9.09% 7.88% 2.79% -5.1% T8
2 ESP Jon Rahm 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.78% 1.28% -4.5% T8
3 USA Will Zalatoris 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.1% 2.6% -2.5%
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.1% 2.24% -2.86% T48
5 USA Justin Thomas 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.1% 1.9% -3.2% T52
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.1% 1.85% -3.26% 1
7 USA Tony Finau 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.1% 1.83% -3.27% T28
8 USA Scottie Scheffler 20 (Sport Nation: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 4.13% 4.39% 0.26% T3
9 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 4.13% 1.6% -2.53% T3
10 USA Collin Morikawa 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.77% 0.77% -3% T44
11 USA Sam Burns 25 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.34% 1.53% -1.8% T19
12 KOR Sungjae Im 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.34% 1.44% -1.9% T15
13 USA Cameron Young 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.99% 1.36% -1.63% T23
14 NOR Viktor Hovland 36 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 7.1/1) 2.7% 2.34% 1.51% -0.83% T35
15 USA Jordan Spieth 40 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.12% 2.28% 0.16% T19 9.17
16 CHI Joaquin Niemann 40 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 2.12% 1.37% -0.75% T8
17 KOR Tom Kim 46 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.4/1) 2.13% 1.85% 1.46% -0.38% T54 8
18 IRL Shane Lowry 53 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.1/1) 1.85% 1.61% 1.97% 0.37% T12 6.96
19 CAN Corey Conners 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.55% 1.32% -0.22% T5 (tied w/3) 6.71 +16.5
20 USA Aaron Wise 66 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 1.4% 0.11% T15 5.61
21 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.29% 0.79% -0.51% T35 5.61
22 USA Max Homa 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.26% 1.99% 0.73% T23 5.45
23 AUS Cameron Davis 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.22% 1.76% 0.54% T35 5.3
24 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 73 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.9/1) 1.35% 1.17% 2.01% 0.83% T23 5.08
25 USA Keith Mitchell 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.07% 1.52% 0.45% T32 4.64
26 AUS Adam Scott 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.04% 1.11% 0.06% T5 (tied w/3) 4.53 +12.2
27 USA Russell Henley 87 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.8/1) 1.14% 0.99% 1.38% 0.39% T35 4.27
28 USA Sahith Theegala 90 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.95% 1.59% 0.64% T15 4.13
29 USA Billy Horschel 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.89% 1.31% 0.43% T35 3.84
30 USA JT Poston 100 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.86% 1.8% 0.94% T35 3.72
31 CAN Taylor Pendrith 100 (LiveScore Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.86% 1.71% 0.85% T8 3.72
32 USA Davis Riley 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.8% 1.85% 1.05% T54 3.48
33 USA Brian Harman 107 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 18.3/1) 0.93% 0.8% 1.28% 0.48% T35 3.48
34 USA Keegan Bradley 110 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.78% 1.6% 0.82% T58 3.39
35 USA Harold Varner III 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.69% 1.46% 0.78% T48 2.99
36 KOR Siwoo Kim 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% 1.2% 0.63%
37 COL Sebastian Munoz 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.57% 1.19% 0.62% T35
38 USA Maverick McNealy 166 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.1/1) 0.6% 0.52% 1.23% 0.71% T32
39 USA Wyndham Clark 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.49% 1.83% 1.33% 64
40 USA Denny McCarthy 185 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.1/1) 0.54% 0.47% 1.28% 0.81% T28
41 ARG Emiliano Grillo 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.44% 1.1% 0.65% T19
42 AUT Sepp Straka 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 1.17% 0.74% T28
43 AUS Lucas Herbert 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.92% 0.49% T15
44 USA Cameron Tringale 200 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.43% 0.85% 0.42% 63
45 IRL Seamus Power 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 1.41% 0.99% 65
46 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 1.37% 0.95% T5
47 SWE Alexander Noren 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% 1.15% 0.73% T52
48 USA Trey Mullinax 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.4% 1.23% 0.83% T12
49 USA Scott Stallings 224 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31/1) 0.44% 0.39% 1.55% 1.17% 2
50 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.37% 1.03% 0.66% T12
51 USA Lucas Glover 234 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32/1) 0.43% 0.37% 0.87% 0.5% 66
52 USA Kevin Kisner 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.35% 1.31% 0.96% T48
53 USA Chris Kirk 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.35% 1.2% 0.85% T61
54 USA Taylor Moore 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.35% 0.97% 0.62% T44
55 USA Tom Hoge 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.35% 1.01% 0.67% T48
56 USA Troy Merritt 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.33% 1.43% 1.1% T58
57 USA Brendan Steele 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.3% 2.06% 1.76% T32
58 USA Alex Smalley 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.3% 1.1% 0.81% T44
59 USA Luke List 293 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.5/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.95% 0.65% T61
60 CAN Adam Hadwin 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.28% 2.24% 1.97% T44
61 USA J.J Spaun 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.15% 0.9% T23
62 USA Andrew Putnam 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 1.02% 0.76% T23
63 AUS Marc Leishman 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.91% 0.66% T28
64 USA Kurt Kitayama 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.25% 1.18% 0.94% T19
65 USA Chez Reavie 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.18% 1.17% 0.99% T54
66 USA Mackenzie Hughes 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.18% 1.28% 1.11% T58
67 USA Matt Kuchar 509 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.2/1) 0.2% 0.17% 1.56% 1.39% T35
68 CHI Guillermo Pereira 0% 0% 0% 0% T54

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -0.3 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 8.5% 8.5%
2 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 38.4% 12.4%
3 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 33.1% 16.1%
4 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 43.2% 16.4%
5 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 33.4% 16.4%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 33.6% 16.6%
7 Betway 7 @ 1/5 44.2% 17.1%
8 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 44.2% 17.2%
9 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 45.2% 18%
10 Coral 7 @ 1/5 45.2% 18%
11 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 35.5% 18.2%
12 Parimatch 5 @ 1/4 35.5% 18.2%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 36.3% 19%
14 LiveScore Bet 5 @ 1/4 36.9% 19.5%
15 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 48.5% 20.6%
16 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 48.5% 20.6%
17 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64% 23.2%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 40.2% 24.1%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 40.3% 24.2%
20 VBet 5 @ 1/4 43% 24.8%
21 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 42.1% 25.8%
22 QuinnBet 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 31.8%