Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 30.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 73.9

Total Profit: -26.2

TURKISH AIRLINES OPEN

07/11/2019 - 10/11/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Justin Rose 8 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.48% 3.58% -4.9% T21
2 USA Patrick Reed 11 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.36% 5.98% -0.38% T10
3 IRL Shane Lowry 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.49% 4.73% 0.24% T62
4 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 16 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.49% 2.82% -1.67% 1
5 ENG Matt Wallace 20 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.63% 4.36% 0.73% T50
6 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.32% 5.49% 2.17% 49 14.89
7 ITA Francesco Molinari 22 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.32% 1.91% -1.41% T44
8 ENG Danny Willett 28 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.63% 3.38% 0.75% T38 11.81
9 SCO Robert MacIntyre 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.63% 2.45% -0.18% T7
10 AUT Matthias Schwab 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.63% 2.29% -0.35% T2
11 CHN Hao Tong Li 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.63% 1% -1.63% T46
12 RSA Erik van Rooyen 30 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.46% 3.39% 0.93% T2 (tied w/5) 11.05 +37.6
13 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 2.08% -0.17% T17
14 SWE Alexander Noren 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 1.61% -0.64% T28
15 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 2.5% 0.63% T56 8.35
16 ENG Paul Waring 40 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.86% 1.94% 0.08% 16
17 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 1.1% -0.76% T2
18 RSA George Coetzee 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 0.98% -0.88% 66
19 ENG Eddie Pepperell 40 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 0.92% -0.94% DQ
20 NED Joost Luiten 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.91% 0.25% T25 7.45
21 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.28% -0.38% T56
22 ITA Andrea Pavan 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 2.61% 1.11% T28 6.72
23 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.83% 0.33% 65 6.72
24 USA Kurt Kitayama 50 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.82% 0.33% T2 (tied w/5) 6.72 +36.3
25 GER Martin Kaymer 50 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.28% -0.22% T38
26 ENG Jordan L Smith 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.36% 0.96% -0.4% T46
27 ENG Tom Lewis 55 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 0.79% -0.58% T32
28 SWE Marcus Kinhult 60 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.25% 2.15% 0.9% T17 5.62
29 BEL Thomas Detry 60 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.25% 1.05% -0.2% T32
30 ENG Chris Paisley 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 0.95% -0.19% T62
31 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 66 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 0.59% -0.55% 72
32 ENG Sam Horsfield 80 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.26% 0.32% T53 4.23
33 SWE Joakim Lagergren 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.12% 0.18% T53 4.23
34 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.82% -0.12% T32
35 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.82% -0.12% T38
36 IND Shubhankar Sharma 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 0.68% -0.27% T7
37 ENG Lee Westwood 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.67% -0.27% T10
38 FRA Romain Langasque 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.39% 0.55% 9 3.77
39 ITA Guido Migliozzi 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.83% -0.01% T10
40 NZL Ryan Fox 90 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.84% 0.58% -0.26% T21
41 ENG Ross Fisher 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 0.87% 0.11% T10
42 ENG Matthew Southgate 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.74% -0.01% T21
43 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.85% 0.17% 69 3.09
44 RSA Justin Harding 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.57% -0.11% T25
45 TPE C.T. Pan 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.87% 0.26% T56 2.72
46 AUS Jason Scrivener 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.79% 0.18% T21 2.72
47 MAS Gavin Green 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.71% 0.11% T50
48 ENG Aaron Rai 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.41% -0.2% T44
49 FRA Benjamin Hebert 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 1.4% 0.86% T2
50 ENG Steven Brown 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.28% 0.77% T70
51 AUS Wade Ormsby 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 1.16% 0.65% T38
52 FIN Kalle Samooja 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.81% 0.3% T17
53 RSA Justin Walters 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.79% 0.28% T67
54 ESP Jorge Campillo 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.56% 0.05% T28
55 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.32% 0.88% T53
56 IRL Padraig Harrington 175 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.62% 0.18% T62
57 RSA Richard Sterne 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.59% 0.16% T50
58 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.51% 0.08% T46
59 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.97% 0.59% T38
60 ITA Nino Bertasio 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.87% 0.49% T28
61 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 200 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.81% 0.43% T38
62 SCO Scott Jamieson 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.46% 0.08% T10
63 USA David Lipsky 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.42% 0.04% T32
64 RSA Zander Lombard 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.81% 0.51% T17
65 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.56% 0.26% T56
66 AUS Scott Hend 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.09% T36
67 ESP Nacho Elvira 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.39% 0.08% T67
68 USA Sean Crocker 250 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.25% -0.05% T25
69 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.5% 0.29% T56
70 JPN Hideto Tanihara 400 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.43% 0.23% T70
71 SCO David Drysdale 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.22% 0.03% 73
72 TUR Taner Yamac 3000 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.03% 0.03% 0.19% 0.16% 74
73 ESP Adrian Otaegui 0% 0% 0% 0% T56
74 ITA Renato Paratore 0% 0% 0% 0% T36

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 30.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 50% 25.8%
2 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 52.5% 27.9%
3 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 52.5% 27.9%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 28.2%
5 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 45% 29.5%
6 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 46.2% 30.5%
7 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.6%
8 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 50% 33.9%
9 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 33.9%
10 Coral 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 33.9%
11 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
13 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
14 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 50.2% 34.1%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 47.5% 34.6%
16 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 51.5% 35.4%
17 Betway 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 37.9%