Betting Market Analysis for U.S. PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.

Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 5 days ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 6/1 7.22% -6.88%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 9/1 1.43% -8.61%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 20/1 1.91% -2.82%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 20/1 0.82% -3.91%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 20/1 0.82% -3.91%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 28/1 0.98% -2.52%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 29/1 2.68% -0.66%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 31/1 1.26% -1.83%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 38/1 1.44% -1.16%
10 CHI Joaquin Niemann 30 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 3.23% 2.59% ≈ 38/1 1.09% -1.5%
11 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 35 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.23% ≈ 44/1 1.56% -0.67%
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 40 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.96% ≈ 50/1 0.68% -1.28%
13 AUS Cameron Smith 45 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.75% ≈ 56/1 0.71% -1.04%
14 USA Jordan Spieth 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.64% ≈ 60/1 1.45% -0.19%
15 USA Wyndham Clark 50 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.58% ≈ 62/1 2.84% 1.26%
16 USA Justin Thomas 50 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.58% ≈ 62/1 1.8% 0.22%
17 USA Patrick Cantlay 53 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.1/1) 1.85% 1.49% ≈ 66/1 1.23% -0.25%
18 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 55 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.44% ≈ 69/1 1.09% -0.35%
19 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 60 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.32% ≈ 75/1 2.38% 1.06%
20 USA Sahith Theegala 60 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.32% ≈ 75/1 2.11% 0.79%
21 AUS Jason Day 60 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.32% ≈ 75/1 1.47% 0.15%
22 AUS Minwoo Lee 66 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.2% ≈ 82/1 1.42% 0.22%
23 USA Cameron Young 68 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.2/1) 1.45% 1.16% ≈ 85/1 1.68% 0.51%
24 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 70 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.13% ≈ 87/1 1.77% 0.64%
25 KOR Sungjae Im 70 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.13% ≈ 87/1 1.21% 0.08%
26 USA Sam Burns 70 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.13% ≈ 87/1 1.03% -0.11%
27 AUT Sepp Straka 80 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 1.68% 0.69%
28 USA Will Zalatoris 97 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.1/1) 1.02% 0.82% ≈ 121/1 1.84% 1.02%
29 USA Russell Henley 100 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% ≈ 125/1 1.62% 0.82%
30 CAN Corey Conners 100 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% ≈ 125/1 0.73% -0.07%
31 USA Talor Gooch 100 (Paddy Power: 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.8% ≈ 125/1 0.1% -0.7%
32 KOR Siwoo Kim 110 (BetVictor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.72% ≈ 137/1 1.51% 0.79%
33 AUS Adam Scott 110 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.72% ≈ 137/1 1.42% 0.7%
34 USA Tony Finau 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.68% ≈ 146/1 1.18% 0.5%
35 USA Akshay Bhatia 125 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% ≈ 156/1 2.08% 1.44%
36 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% ≈ 156/1 1.5% 0.87%
37 USA Denny McCarthy 125 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.64% ≈ 156/1 1.14% 0.5%
38 USA Dustin Johnson 126 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.6/1) 0.79% 0.63% ≈ 157/1 0.1% -0.54%
39 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 150 (Betfair : 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 1.18% 0.65%
40 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.86% 0.33%
41 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (Coral: 12 @ 1/6) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.82% 0.29%
42 USA Kurt Kitayama 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.79% 0.26%
43 USA Daniel Berger 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.46% -0.07%
44 ESP Sergio Garcia 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.1% -0.44%
45 USA Harold Varner III 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.1% -0.44%
46 MEX Abraham Ancer 150 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.1% -0.44%
47 IRL Shane Lowry 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 1.06% 0.54%
48 USA Andrew Novak 175 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.46% ≈ 218/1 0.98% 0.52%
49 USA Harris English 200 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 249/1 1.7% 1.3%
50 USA Patrick Reed 200 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 249/1 0.94% 0.54%
51 AUS Marc Leishman 200 (BetVictor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 249/1 0.57% 0.17%
52 BEL Thomas Pieters 200 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 249/1 0.1% -0.3%
53 AUS Kevin Yuan 200 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 249/1 0.1% -0.3%
54 CAN Taylor Pendrith 225 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.36% ≈ 280/1 1.45% 1.1%
55 USA Jake Knappe 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% ≈ 311/1 2.11% 1.79%
56 USA Jason Kokrak 250 (QuinnBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% ≈ 311/1 0.1% -0.22%
57 KOR Woohyun Kim 254 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.2/1) 0.39% 0.32% ≈ 316/1 0.1% -0.22%
58 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 264 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.3/1) 0.38% 0.3% ≈ 329/1 0.82% 0.51%
59 POL Adrian Meronk 300 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% ≈ 373/1 1.12% 0.85%
60 USA Davis Riley 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.27% ≈ 373/1 0.85% 0.58%
61 IRL Seamus Power 300 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% ≈ 373/1 0.74% 0.47%
62 USA Kevin Na 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% ≈ 373/1 0.1% -0.17%
63 USA Keegan Bradley 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.26% ≈ 390/1 1.13% 0.87%
64 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.25% ≈ 401/1 1.68% 1.43%
65 USA Mackenzie Hughes 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.25% ≈ 401/1 0.8% 0.55%
66 USA Brian Harman 342 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.7/1) 0.29% 0.23% ≈ 426/1 1.1% 0.86%
67 ENG Matt Wallace 350 (Betfred: 10 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 436/1 1.15% 0.92%
68 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 350 (Spreadex: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 436/1 0.94% 0.71%
69 USA Joel Dahmen 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 436/1 0.56% 0.33%
70 USA Aaron Wise 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 436/1 0.1% -0.13%
71 USA Rickie Fowler 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 438/1 0.61% 0.39%
72 NZL Ryan Fox 371 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.7/1) 0.27% 0.22% ≈ 462/1 0.32% 0.11%
73 USA Nick Dunlap 400 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% ≈ 498/1 1.73% 1.53%
74 USA JT Poston 411 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.7/1) 0.24% 0.2% ≈ 512/1 1.4% 1.21%
75 ENG Justin Rose 499 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 64.2/1) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 621/1 0.63% 0.46%
76 FRA Matthieu Pavon 509 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.2/1) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 634/1 1.42% 1.26%
77 USA Tiger Woods 509 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 65.2/1) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 634/1 0.63% 0.47%
78 USA Billy Horschel 518 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66/1) 0.19% 0.15% ≈ 645/1 1.72% 1.57%
79 CAN Adam Hadwin 548 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.8/1) 0.18% 0.15% ≈ 682/1 1.17% 1.02%
80 CAN Nick Taylor 567 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 70.5/1) 0.18% 0.14% ≈ 706/1 1.42% 1.28%
81 USA Eric Cole 724 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.3/1) 0.14% 0.11% ≈ 901/1 1.39% 1.28%
82 USA Gary Woodland 750 (Spreadex: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 933/1 0.28% 0.17%
83 USA Phil Mickelson 803 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 90.9/1) 0.12% 0.1% ≈ 999/1 0.98% 0.88%
84 SCO Robert MacIntyre 812 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.6/1) 0.12% 0.1% ≈ 1010/1 0.5% 0.4%
85 FRA Victor Perez 842 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 94.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% ≈ 1048/1 0.52% 0.42%
86 SWE Jesper Svensson 1000 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1244/1 0.98% 0.9%
87 ITA Francesco Molinari 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2489/1 0.34% 0.3%
88 GER Martin Kaymer 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2489/1 0.1% 0.06%
89 IRL Padraig Harrington 2000 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2489/1 0.1% 0.06%
90 USA Michael Block 5000 (LiveScore Bet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 6221/1 0.19% 0.17%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 5.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -8.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfred 10 @ 1/5 49.5% 2.8%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 41% 9.5%
3 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 33.4% 11%
4 Sporting Index 7 @ 1/5 33.4% 11%
5 Coral 12 @ 1/6 66.4% 12.8%
6 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 66.4% 13.1%
7 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 66.6% 14%
8 LiveScore Bet 8 @ 1/5 47.4% 14.8%
9 BoyleSports 8 @ 1/5 48.4% 15.6%
10 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 49.1% 15.9%
11 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 50.2% 16.7%
12 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 41.2% 17.5%
13 BetUK 7 @ 1/5 41.2% 17.5%
14 BetMGM UK 7 @ 1/5 41.2% 17.5%
15 QuinnBet 8 @ 1/5 52% 18%
16 BetGoodwin 8 @ 1/5 52% 18%
17 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 51.5% 18.1%
18 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 33.9% 18.6%
19 VBet 8 @ 1/5 55.1% 20.7%
20 Betfair Sportsbook 12 @ 1/5 100.5% 22.5%
21 10Bet 7 @ 1/5 48.5% 23.9%
22 Star Sports 8 @ 1/5 59.7% 24.2%
23 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 263.8% 177.9%