Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: -24.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.7 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 50.6

Total Profit: -49.6

Dubai Championship

11/11/2021 - 14/11/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Paul Casey 11 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 7.3% 4% -3.3% T31
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 11 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 7.3% 2.66% -4.64% T13
3 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 5.15% 2.14% -3.01% T2
4 AUS Minwoo Lee 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.81% 2.7% -1.11% T4
5 ENG Matt Wallace 22 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.81% 1.98% -1.82% MC
6 BEL Thomas Detry 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.02% 2.74% -0.28% MC
7 RSA Dean Burmester 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 3.02% 1.26% -1.76% T44
8 ENG Sam Horsfield 35 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.43% 1.63% -0.8% T44
9 FRA Victor Perez 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.14% 0.87% -1.26% T24
10 FRA Antoine Rozner 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.14% 0.56% -1.58% T4
11 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 47 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.5/1) 2.08% 1.83% 1.33% -0.5% MC
12 USA Johannes Veerman 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.72% 1.96% 0.24% MC 7.59
13 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.72% 1.13% -0.59% T24
14 USA Sean Crocker 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.56% 2.41% 0.85% T8 6.92
15 ITA Guido Migliozzi 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.56% 1.53% -0.04% T44
16 SCO Grant Forrest 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.56% 1.34% -0.23% T51
17 ENG Tom Lewis 55 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.56% 0.54% -1.03% MC
18 ENG Jordan L Smith 66 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13/1) 1.49% 1.31% 1.67% 0.36% T24 5.78
19 ITA Francesco Laporta 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.31% 1.41% 0.1% T2 (tied w/2) 5.78 +50.6
20 ENG Matthew Jordan 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.31% 1.37% 0.07% T31 5.78
21 POL Adrian Meronk 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.31% 0.78% -0.53% T8
22 FRA Romain Langasque 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.31% 0.54% -0.77% T31
23 GER Martin Kaymer 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.31% 0.53% -0.78% T13
24 USA John Catlin 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.23% 1.32% 0.08% T31 5.46
25 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.23% 1.21% -0.03% T59 5.46
26 ENG Callum Shinkwin 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.23% 0.96% -0.28% T31
27 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 70 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 13.5/1) 1.41% 1.23% 0.89% -0.34% MC
28 ENG Andy Sullivan 75 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.2/1) 1.32% 1.15% 0.56% -0.59% T4
29 FIN Mikko Korhonen 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.08% 1.33% 0.25% T24 4.78
30 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1.08% 1.31% 0.23% T31 4.78
31 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.08% 0.36% -0.73% T8
32 SWE Alexander Bjork 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.92% 1.32% 0.4% T19 4.08
33 RSA Justin Harding 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.92% 1.06% 0.14% T55 4.08
34 SWE Joakim Lagergren 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.92% 1% 0.08% T64 4.08
35 ENG Marcus Armitage 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.87% 1.09% 0.22% T19 3.84
36 FRA Matthieu Pavon 104 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 17.9/1) 0.95% 0.83% 1.31% 0.47% T19 3.69
37 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.79% 1.26% 0.47% T44 3.49
38 ENG David Horsey 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 1.63% 0.92% MC 3.13
39 ITA Renato Paratore 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 1.1% 0.4% MC 3.13
40 ENG Jack Senior 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 1.09% 0.38% T44 3.13
41 IND Shubhankar Sharma 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 0.97% 0.27% MC 3.13
42 ESP Adrian Otaegui 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.71% 0.9% 0.2% MC 3.13
43 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.7% 0.99% 0.29% T51 3.08
44 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.7% 0.54% -0.15% T44
45 FRA Alexander Levy 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.66% 0.82% 0.16% MC 2.91
46 ITA Nino Bertasio 132 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 21.3/1) 0.75% 0.66% 0.81% 0.16% MC 2.91
47 ITA Edoardo Molinari 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.61% 1.24% 0.63% T17
48 DEN Jeff Winther 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.61% 0.91% 0.3% 69
49 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.61% 0.84% 0.23% T31
50 NED Joost Luiten 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.58% 0.99% 0.41% MC
51 ESP Jorge Campillo 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.58% 0.98% 0.4% 63
52 THA Jazz Janewattananond 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.58% 0.73% 0.15% T4
53 SWE Niklas Lemke 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.58% 0.52% -0.06% T51
54 AUS Jason Scrivener 161 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24.5/1) 0.62% 0.54% 0.78% 0.24% T31
55 FIN Kalle Samooja 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.51% 0.49% -0.02% T8
56 FRA Julien Guerrier 170 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 25.5/1) 0.58% 0.51% 0.48% -0.03% T31
57 ENG James Morrison 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.48% 0.91% 0.43% T64
58 SCO Richie Ramsay 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.48% 0.81% 0.33% MC
59 ENG Eddie Pepperell 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.48% 0.74% 0.25% MC
60 ENG Ross Fisher 189 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.5/1) 0.53% 0.46% 0.41% -0.05% MC
61 ESP Alejandro Canizares 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.44% 0.91% 0.47% T19
62 RSA Justin Walters 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.44% 0.76% 0.32% MC
63 SCO Connor Syme 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.42% 0.64% 0.22% MC
64 ENG Daniel Gavins 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.4% 1.26% 0.86% T44
65 IRL Padraig Harrington 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.4% 0.93% 0.53% T8
66 ESP Alvaro Quiros 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.4% 0.71% 0.31% T55
67 ENG Oliver Wilson 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.39% 0.72% 0.33% MC
68 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.64% 0.26% T31
69 SCO Scott Jamieson 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.38% 0.56% 0.17% T13
70 ENG Steven Brown 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.37% 0.22% -0.14% MC
71 SCO David Law 256 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 39.5/1) 0.39% 0.34% 0.89% 0.54% T61
72 SCO Stephen Gallacher 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.33% 0.42% 0.09% T61
73 ENG Dale Whitnell 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.32% 0.98% 0.66% MC
74 FRA Benjamin Hebert 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.32% 0.69% 0.37% MC
75 FIN Sami Valimaki 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.32% 0.54% 0.23% T64
76 RSA Darren Fichardt 284 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.6/1) 0.35% 0.31% 0.41% 0.11% T59
77 ENG Paul Waring 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.76% 0.46% T13
78 ESP Nacho Elvira 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.59% 0.3% T55
79 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.57% 0.27% MC
80 GER Maximilian Kieffer 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.3% 0.47% 0.17% T17
81 ENG Garrick Porteous 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.29% 0.46% 0.17% MC
82 ENG Ashley Chesters 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.27% 0.9% 0.63% T31
83 MAS Gavin Green 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.27% 0.57% 0.3% MC
84 CAN Aaron Cockerill 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.26% 0.77% 0.51% MC
85 SCO Marc Warren 389 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.77% 0.54% MC
86 NED Lars Van Meijel 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 0.49% 0.27% MC
87 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.22% 0.36% 0.14% MC
88 SWE Rikard Karlberg 408 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 55.4/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.49% 0.27% MC
89 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 417 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.3/1) 0.24% 0.21% 0.42% 0.21% T55
90 RSA Zander Lombard 427 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 57.3/1) 0.23% 0.2% 0.32% 0.11% T24
91 SWE Marcus Kinhult 455 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60/1) 0.22% 0.19% 0.26% 0.06% T24
92 WAL Oliver Farr 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.59% 0.42% T51
93 ENG Chris Wood 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.18% 0.26% 0.08% T24
94 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 1.37% 1.2% MC
95 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.7% 0.52% MC
96 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.17% 0.39% 0.22% MC
97 SCO David Drysdale 541 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 68.1/1) 0.18% 0.16% 0.39% 0.22% MC
98 USA Julian Suri 560 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.9/1) 0.18% 0.16% 0.25% 0.1% MC
99 POR Ricardo Santos 588 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 72.4/1) 0.17% 0.15% 0.81% 0.66% MC
100 ENG Chris Paisley 674 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.33% 0.2% MC
101 FRA Robin Roussel 807 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.2/1) 0.12% 0.11% 0.57% 0.46% T31
102 ENG David Coupland 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.56% 0.46% T31
103 FRA Joel Stalter 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.46% 0.36% 68
104 ENG Oliver Fisher 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.33% 0.23% MC
105 ENG Richard McEvoy 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
106 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.38% 0.29% MC
107 ENG David Howell 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% 0.32% 0.23% MC
108 POR Pedro Figueiredo 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.22% MC
109 RSA Haydn Porteous 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% 0.31% 0.22% T64
110 UAE Ahmed Skaik 2500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.04% 0.2% 0.17% MC
111 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% T19
112 ESP Carlos Pigem 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
113 FRA Clement Sordet 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: -24.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.7 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 16.3% 16.3%
2 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.3%
3 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.3%
4 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 41.3% 24.3%
5 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 39.3% 24.6%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 53.5% 26.1%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 53.5% 26.1%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 26.8%
9 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 41.9% 27%
10 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 68.6% 27.9%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 43.2% 28.2%
12 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 43.2% 28.2%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 47% 31.5%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 48.2% 32.6%
15 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 48.8% 33.2%
16 Betway 6 @ 1/5 49.7% 34%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 54.6% 36%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 52.2% 36.3%