Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 7.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -3.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.6 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 107.1

Total Profit: +7

Arnold Palmer Invitational

03/03/2022 - 06/03/2022

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 8.5 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 10.53% 8.93% 2.2% -6.73% T17
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 12 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 6.52% 2.83% -3.7% T13
3 NOR Viktor Hovland 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.65% 3.85% -1.8% T2
4 USA Scottie Scheffler 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.65% 2.7% -2.95% 1
5 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 25 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.26% 2.31% -0.96% T20
6 USA Will Zalatoris 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.92% 1.3% -1.63% T38
7 KOR Sungjae Im 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.74% 2.23% -0.51% T20
8 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.36% 1.34% -1.01% T2
9 AUS Adam Scott 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.36% 1.25% -1.11% T26
10 ENG Paul Casey 35 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.36% 0.88% -1.48% 72
11 USA Max Homa 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.07% 1.65% -0.42% T17
12 USA Jason Kokrak 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 2.07% 1.47% -0.6% T26
13 AUS Marc Leishman 43 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8/1) 2.27% 1.93% 2.14% 0.21% T68 8.53
14 USA Keith Mitchell 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.84% 1.42% -0.43% T61
15 USA Billy Horschel 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.66% 1.9% 0.23% T2 (tied w/3) 7.36 +49.7
16 ENG Justin Rose 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.66% 1.45% -0.21% MC 7.36
17 USA Sam Burns 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.66% 1.36% -0.3% T9
18 USA Talor Gooch 60 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.39% 2.09% 0.7% T7 (tied w/2) 6.15 +40
19 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 60 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.39% 1.27% -0.12% T20 6.15
20 USA Maverick McNealy 60 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.39% 1.22% -0.17% 73 6.15
21 CAN Corey Conners 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.39% 1% -0.39% T11
22 USA Cameron Young 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 1.85% 0.58% T13 5.6
23 USA Russell Henley 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 1.6% 0.33% T13 5.6
24 USA Keegan Bradley 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.27% 0.83% -0.44% T11
25 ESP Sergio Garcia 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 0.79% -0.47% T38
26 AUS Jason Day 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.27% 0.71% -0.56%
27 USA Luke List 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.19% 1.46% 0.26% MC 5.29
28 USA Chris Kirk 70 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.19% 0.77% -0.42% T5
29 IRL Seamus Power 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 1.05% 1.45% 0.4% MC 4.63
30 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 80 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.9/1) 1.23% 1.05% 0.86% -0.19% T20 4.63
31 COL Sebastian Munoz 90 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.93% 1% 0.07% T26 4.12
32 MEX Carlos Ortiz 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.93% 0.71% -0.22% MC 4.12
33 USA Gary Woodland 94 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 16.7/1) 1.05% 0.89% 0.7% -0.2% T5 (tied w/2) 3.95 +17.5
34 USA Tom Hoge 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 1.53% 0.69% T32 3.72
35 KOR Siwoo Kim 100 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.84% 1.08% 0.24% T26 3.72
36 USA Kevin Na 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.84% 0.68% -0.16% MC 3.72
37 USA Cameron Tringale 113 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19/1) 0.88% 0.74% 1.06% 0.31% MC 3.29
38 USA Lanto Griffin 123 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 20.2/1) 0.81% 0.68% 1.17% 0.49% T52 3.03
39 SCO Martin Laird 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.67% 1.11% 0.43% T52 2.98
40 BEL Thomas Pieters 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.59% 1.78% 1.19% T32
41 RSA Erik van Rooyen 142 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.4/1) 0.7% 0.59% 0.99% 0.4% MC
42 USA Taylor Moore 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.6% 0.03% T42
43 USA Charles Howell III 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.56% 0.59% 0.03% T32
44 USA Patrick Reed 151 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 23.4/1) 0.66% 0.56% 0.64% 0.08% MC
45 USA Aaron Wise 175 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.57% 0.48% 0.88% 0.4% T17
46 USA Sahith Theegala 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.7% 0.23% MC
47 USA Lucas Glover 180 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26.5/1) 0.55% 0.47% 0.67% 0.2% T74
48 USA Richard H. Lee 189 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 27.5/1) 0.53% 0.45% 0.11% -0.34%
49 AUT Sepp Straka 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.42% 0.97% 0.55% MC
50 USA Kevin Kisner 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.42% 0.69% 0.27% MC
51 USA Rickie Fowler 199 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.5/1) 0.5% 0.42% 0.64% 0.21% T52
52 AUS Minwoo Lee 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.42% 0.54% 0.12% MC
53 USA Denny McCarthy 208 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.4/1) 0.48% 0.41% 0.97% 0.56% T61
54 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.39% 1.64% 1.25% MC
55 ENG Ian Poulter 218 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.4/1) 0.46% 0.39% 0.48% 0.1% T42
56 CAN Taylor Pendrith 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.38% 0.69% 0.31% T42
57 USA Troy Merritt 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.37% 0.75% 0.38% T74
58 ENG Lee Westwood 227 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 31.3/1) 0.44% 0.37% 0.33% -0.04% T68
59 USA Andrew Putnam 237 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 32.3/1) 0.42% 0.36% 0.96% 0.61% MC
60 USA Matthew Wolff 246 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.2/1) 0.4% 0.34% 0.93% 0.59% T61
61 RSA Garrick Higgo 246 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33.2/1) 0.4% 0.34% 0.43% 0.09% MC
62 CAN Adam Svensson 250 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.4% 0.34% 0.59% 0.25% MC
63 ENG Danny Willett 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.34% 0.44% 0.1% T52
64 USA Beau Hossler 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.97% 0.66% T20
65 RSA Dylan Frittelli 265 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 40.5/1) 0.38% 0.32% 0.66% 0.35% T42
66 USA Patton Kizzire 275 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.6/1) 0.36% 0.31% 0.57% 0.26% T32
67 AUS Cameron Davis 284 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.6/1) 0.35% 0.3% 0.46% 0.16% MC
68 USA Patrick Rodgers 284 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 42.6/1) 0.35% 0.3% 0.26% -0.04% T38
69 AUS Matt Jones 294 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 43.6/1) 0.34% 0.29% 0.65% 0.36% T52
70 USA Vincent Whaley 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.28% 0.37% 0.09% T61
71 ENG Aaron Rai 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% 0.84% 0.56% MC
72 AUS Lucas Herbert 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.59% 0.32% T7
73 USA Alex Smalley 313 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 45.7/1) 0.32% 0.27% 0.31% 0.04% T38
74 USA Hudson Swafford 322 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 46.6/1) 0.31% 0.26% 0.67% 0.41% MC
75 USA Lee Hodges 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.25% 0.56% 0.31% MC
76 CAN Nick Taylor 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.93% 0.68% T32
77 USA Pat Perez 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.68% 0.43% T42
78 USA Cameron Champ 341 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 48.6/1) 0.29% 0.25% 0.16% -0.09% T61
79 USA Greyson Sigg 351 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.7/1) 0.28% 0.24% 0.51% 0.27% T68
80 NZL Danny Lee 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.61% 0.38% T61
81 JPN Takumi Kanaya 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.47% 0.24% MC
82 USA Brendon Todd 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.45% 0.22% 60
83 USA Kevin Streelman 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.36% 0.13% MC
84 USA Brendan Steele 379 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 52.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.29% 0.07% T26
85 USA Sam Ryder 389 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.5% 0.29% T61
86 ENG Matt Wallace 389 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.4% 0.18% MC
87 USA Doug Ghim 389 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.5/1) 0.26% 0.22% 0.35% 0.13% MC
88 USA Michael Thompson 400 (10Bet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.25% 0.21% 0.46% 0.25% MC
89 USA Adam Long 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.21% 0.38% 0.17% T32
90 RSA Branden Grace 417 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 56.3/1) 0.24% 0.2% 0.46% 0.26% MC
91 USA J.J Spaun 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.18% 1.19% 1.01% T52
92 USA Chez Reavie 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.58% 0.4% 77
93 USA Zach Johnson 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.39% 0.21% T42
94 SWE Henrik Stenson 474 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 61.9/1) 0.21% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% MC
95 USA Scott Stallings 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.6% 0.43% MC
96 USA Sean O'Hair 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.35% 0.18% MC
97 USA Davis Riley 493 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.7/1) 0.2% 0.17% 0.32% 0.15% MC
98 RSA Charl Schwartzel 636 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.7/1) 0.16% 0.13% 0.18% 0.04% MC
99 USA Adam Schenk 664 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.38% 0.25% T42
100 SVK Rory Sabbatini 664 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 79.1/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.37% 0.24% WD
101 USA Trey Mullinax 674 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 80/1) 0.15% 0.13% 0.34% 0.22% MC
102 USA Brandt Snedeker 712 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 83.2/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.27% 0.15% MC
103 USA Kevin Tway 731 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 84.9/1) 0.14% 0.12% 0.56% 0.44% MC
104 USA John Pak 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% 0.14% 0.03% T52
105 IRL Padraig Harrington 759 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.72% 0.61% T42
106 GER Stephan Jaeger 759 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.29% 0.17% T52
107 USA Peter Malnati 769 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.83% 0.72% MC
108 USA Hayden Buckley 769 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.1/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.54% 0.43% T68
109 USA Nick Watney 778 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 88.8/1) 0.13% 0.11% 0.58% 0.47% T20
110 SWE Henrik Norlander 854 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.31% 0.21% MC
111 NIR Graeme McDowell 854 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 95.1/1) 0.12% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% T13
112 FRA Paul Barjon 892 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 98.1/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.36% 0.27% MC
113 USA Davis Thompson 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.27% 0.18% T42
114 IND Anirban Lahiri 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.17% 0.08% T74
115 USA Sam Bennett 949 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 102.7/1) 0.11% 0.09% 0.13% 0.04% MC
116 USA Jonathan Byrd 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.34% 0.26% MC
117 USA Greg Koch 2500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.12% 0.08% MC
118 USA Scott Piercy 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
119 USA David Lipsky 0% 0% 0% 0% T26
120 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% T42
121 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 0% 0% 0% 0% T9
122 USA James Piot 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 7.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -3.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 9.6% 9.6%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 48.2% 12.5%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 29.8% 14.2%
4 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 50.6% 14.4%
5 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 50.7% 14.5%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 58.4% 20.3%
7 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 58.4% 20.3%
8 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 42.1% 27.3%
9 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 95.3% 29%
10 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 48.6% 33.1%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 35%
12 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 35%
13 10Bet 1 @ 1/1 36.2% 36.2%
14 Mansion Bet 1 @ 1/1 36.2% 36.2%
15 Sport Nation 1 @ 1/1 37.2% 37.2%
16 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 56.3% 37.6%
17 Unibet 1 @ 1/1 48.4% 48.4%
18 VBet 5 @ 1/4 78.2% 56.9%
19 Betway 1 @ 1/1 61.2% 61.2%
20 Ladbrokes 1 @ 1/1 62.5% 62.5%
21 Coral 1 @ 1/1 62.5% 62.5%