Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 25.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.4 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 257.4

Total Profit: +157.4

Scottish Championship

15/10/2020 - 18/10/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ENG Matt Wallace 12 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 7.69% 6.01% 2.73% -3.27% 2
2 ENG Aaron Rai 14 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.21% 8.04% 2.84% 3
3 ENG Lee Westwood 14 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.21% 3.01% -2.2% T14
4 ENG Eddie Pepperell 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.21% 1.15% -4.06% T16
5 SCO Robert MacIntyre 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.59% 2.37% -2.22% WD
6 ITA Renato Paratore 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.4% 2.39% -1% T37
7 ENG Matthew Jordan 22 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.4% 1.22% -2.18% T25
8 ENG Sam Horsfield 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.69% 3% 0.31% T43 12.08
9 ENG Matthew Southgate 30 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.52% 1.07% -1.45% T16
10 SCO Connor Syme 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.3% 1.91% -0.39% T37
11 RSA Justin Harding 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 2.64% 0.73% T30 8.54
12 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 2.11% 0.2% MC 8.54
13 RSA Brandon Stone 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.9% 0.96% -0.94% T16
14 SCO Richie Ramsay 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.7% 0.74% -0.96% T33
15 ENG Paul Waring 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.7% 0.64% -1.05% T25
16 SCO Scott Jamieson 50 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.53% 2.09% 0.56% T37 6.87
17 USA Sean Crocker 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.53% 1.47% -0.06% T9
18 RSA Dean Burmester 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.53% 0.9% -0.64% MC
19 IRL Padraig Harrington 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% 1.96% 0.56% T14 6.26
20 SCO Marc Warren 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% 1.34% -0.06% T25
21 SCO Grant Forrest 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.39% 1.01% -0.38% MC
22 NED Wil Besseling 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.28% 1.66% 0.38% T30 5.74
23 ESP Adrian Otaegui 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 1.2% 0.03% 1 5.23 +212.3
24 SCO Calum Hill 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.17% 1.2% 0.03% T25 5.23
25 FRA Clement Sordet 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.17% 1.15% -0.01% MC 5.23
26 ENG Callum Shinkwin 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 0.96% -0.21% WD
27 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 0.82% -0.35% MC
28 ENG Jack Senior 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.17% 0.79% -0.38% MC
29 IND Shubhankar Sharma 66 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 0.63% -0.54% T37
30 AUS Minwoo Lee 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.17% 0.61% -0.56% MC
31 WAL Jamie Donaldson 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 1.48% 0.51% T9 4.33
32 ENG Marcus Armitage 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 1.36% 0.39% T7 4.33
33 AUS Scott Hend 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 1.04% 0.08% MC 4.33
34 ENG Ben Stow 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% 0.83% -0.13% T16
35 AUS Wade Ormsby 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 0.8% -0.17% MC
36 POL Adrian Meronk 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% 0.63% -0.34% T51
37 SCO Craig Howie 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% 1.85% 1% T43 3.85
38 SWE Oscar Lengden 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% 1.56% 0.7% MC 3.85
39 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.86% 0.85% 0% T9 3.85
40 ENG Chris Paisley 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% 1.82% 1.05% T4 (tied w/2) 3.47 +45.1
41 ESP Alejandro Canizares 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% 0.34% -0.43% WD
42 ENG Toby Tree 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% 0.55% -0.15% MC
43 SCO Ewen Ferguson 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 1.17% 0.55% T16 2.78
44 ENG James Morrison 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.67% 0.05% T30 2.78
45 DEN Martin Leth Simonsen 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.63% 0.01% T25 2.78
46 FRA Adrien Saddier 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.56% -0.06% 6
47 AUS Jake McLeod 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% 0.34% -0.28% MC
48 FRA Alexander Levy 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 0.45% -0.1% T16
49 ENG Dale Whitnell 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 1.36% 0.85% MC
50 ENG David Coupland 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.52% 0.88% 0.36% T56
51 CAN Aaron Cockerill 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.73% 0.21% MC
52 SWE Niklas Lemke 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.6% 0.08% MC
53 NED Daan Huizing 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.59% 0.07% MC
54 SCO Stephen Gallacher 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.51% 0% MC
55 RSA Bryce Easton 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.52% 0.43% -0.09% T16
56 ENG Ashley Chesters 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.49% 0.61% 0.12% T49
57 SWE Jens Fahrbring 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 1.01% 0.57% T60
58 RSA Justin Walters 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.93% 0.49% T16
59 ENG Ben Evans 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.71% 0.27% T60
60 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.55% 0.1% T7
61 FRA Romain Wattel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.41% -0.03% MC
62 ENG Matthew Baldwin 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.41% -0.03% T9
63 SCO David Law 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.36% -0.08% T33
64 CHN Wu Ashun 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.34% -0.1% T16
65 NED Darius Van Driel 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.67% 0.28% T33
66 NIR Cormac Sharvin 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.57% 0.19% MC
67 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.54% 0.15% T33
68 GER Hurly Long 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% 0.34% -0.05% T51
69 ENG Chris Wood 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% 0.33% -0.06% MC
70 WAL Oliver Farr 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 1.12% 0.81% T9
71 GER Marcel Schneider 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.92% 0.61% T65
72 POR Ricardo Santos 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.41% 0.1% T63
73 SWE Robin Petersson 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.36% 0.05% T56
74 ENG Lee Slattery 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.26% -0.05% MC
75 ENG Garrick Porteous 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.58% 0.29% T4
76 SCO Liam Johnston 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.5% 0.22% MC
77 SCO Euan Walker 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.32% 0.04% MC
78 SCO David Drysdale 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.41% 0.15% T51
79 FRA Gregory Havret 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.34% 0.08% T60
80 FRA Damien Perrier 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.3% 0.04% T65
81 ENG David Dixon 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 2.39% 2.16% MC
82 POR Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.73% 0.51% T43
83 SWE Joel Sjoholm 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.62% 0.4% 69
84 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.45% 0.23% MC
85 FRA Joel Stalter 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.4% 0.17% T43
86 NED Lars Van Meijel 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.28% 0.05% T43
87 ENG Oliver Wilson 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.32% 0.12% T43
88 SWE Philip Eriksson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 1% 0.84% T63
89 SCO Daniel Young 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.46% 0.3% 68
90 ENG Daniel Gavins 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.43% 0.28% T37
91 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.42% 0.27% T56
92 IRL Gavin Moynihan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.42% 0.26% MC
93 ENG David Howell 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.39% 0.24% MC
94 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.38% 0.22% MC
95 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% 0.36% 0.21% MC
96 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.16% 0.29% 0.13% T37
97 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.54% 0.41% T56
98 AUS Zach Murray 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.45% 0.32% 67
99 IMN Tom Gandy 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.4% 0.27% T51
100 IRL Niall Kearney 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.36% 0.23% WD
101 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.34% 0.21% MC
102 FIN Janne Kaske 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.43% 0.33% MC
103 ENG Steven Tiley 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.42% 0.32% T49
104 SCO Ross Cameron 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.32% 0.24% MC
105 NZL Michael Campbell 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.31% 0.23% MC
106 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% 0% 0% T51
107 ENG Jordan Wrisdale 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
108 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 25.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.4 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 29.7% 15.7%
2 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 42.2% 29.6%
3 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 67.2% 29.6%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 30.9%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 56.2% 30.9%
6 Betway 7 @ 1/5 58.5% 32.8%
7 VBet 6 @ 1/5 45.9% 33%
8 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.7%
9 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.7%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.7%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 46.7% 33.8%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.9% 33.8%
13 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 48.3% 35.2%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 49.4% 36.2%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 54.8% 41.2%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 56.1% 42.4%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.4%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.4%