Betting Market Analysis for Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: one month ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 21/1 3.52% -1.01%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 18/1 3.16% -2.07%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 17/1 2.62% -3.04%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 11/1 2.6% -5.89%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 81/1 2.47% 1.25%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 42/1 2.42% 0.08%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 30/1 2.07% -1.16%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 59/1 2.05% 0.39%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 52/1 1.99% 0.1%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 67/1 1.83% 0.35%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 184/1 1.81% 1.27%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 52/1 1.72% -0.16%
13 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 20 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.24% ≈ 30/1 1.71% -1.52%
14 USA Cameron Tringale 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.89% ≈ 111/1 1.63% 0.74%
15 CAN Corey Conners 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% ≈ 148/1 1.63% 0.96%
16 ITA Francesco Molinari 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.19% ≈ 45/1 1.6% -0.6%
17 USA Jordan Spieth 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.19% ≈ 45/1 1.58% -0.61%
18 KOR Sungjae Im 18 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.58% ≈ 27/1 1.57% -2%
19 USA Will Zalatoris 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% ≈ 59/1 1.54% -0.11%
20 USA Wyndham Clark 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 1.54% 1%
21 USA Jason Kokrak 40 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% ≈ 59/1 1.51% -0.14%
22 AUS Cameron Davis 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.89% ≈ 111/1 1.39% 0.5%
23 AUS Matt Jones 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 1.38% 0.77%
24 USA Lanto Griffin 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% ≈ 118/1 1.38% 0.54%
25 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.34% ≈ 42/1 1.37% -0.97%
26 FRA Victor Perez 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 1.32% 0.78%
27 USA Max Homa 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.21% ≈ 81/1 1.3% 0.09%
28 KOR Siwoo Kim 85 (VBet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.16% 0.79% ≈ 126/1 1.28% 0.49%
29 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% ≈ 118/1 1.25% 0.41%
30 USA Chris Kirk 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 1.25% 0.71%
31 AUS Marc Leishman 45 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.48% ≈ 67/1 1.25% -0.23%
32 AUS Jason Day 30 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.19% ≈ 45/1 1.06% -1.13%
33 USA Kevin Kisner 75 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.32% 0.89% ≈ 111/1 1.03% 0.14%
34 ENG Justin Rose 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.01% ≈ 98/1 1.03% 0.01%
35 USA Brendon Todd 80 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% ≈ 118/1 0.94% 0.1%
36 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.94% 0.49%
37 ENG Matt Wallace 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.91% 0.46%
38 USA Robert Streb 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.87% 0.74%
39 AUT Sepp Straka 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.83% 0.56%
40 USA Doug Ghim 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% ≈ 236/1 0.82% 0.4%
41 SCO Martin Laird 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% ≈ 332/1 0.78% 0.47%
42 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% ≈ 148/1 0.77% 0.09%
43 USA Charley Hoffman 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% ≈ 148/1 0.73% 0.06%
44 SWE Henrik Norlander 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.73% 0.19%
45 IRL Shane Lowry 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% ≈ 148/1 0.72% 0.05%
46 RSA Erik van Rooyen 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.72% 0.27%
47 USA Steve Stricker 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.71% 0.38%
48 ENG Ian Poulter 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.71% 0.1%
49 USA JT Poston 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.71% 0.17%
50 USA Matthew NeSmith 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.7% 0.16%
51 USA Talor Gooch 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% ≈ 118/1 0.7% -0.14%
52 USA Tom Hoge 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.68% 0.34%
53 USA Cameron Champ 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% ≈ 258/1 0.67% 0.29%
54 USA Peter Malnati 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.66% 0.32%
55 CAN Nick Taylor 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% ≈ 258/1 0.65% 0.26%
56 ARG Emiliano Grillo 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.64% 0.03%
57 USA Patton Kizzire 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.63% 0.18%
58 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.62% 0.09%
59 USA Adam Long 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.61% 0.28%
60 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.61% 0.38%
61 USA Andrew Putnam 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.61% 0.07%
62 SVK Rory Sabbatini 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.61% 0.33%
63 USA Brian Gay 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% ≈ 589/1 0.6% 0.43%
64 USA Zach Johnson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.6% 0.15%
65 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.59% 0.14%
66 TPE C.T. Pan 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.59% 0.31%
67 ENG Lee Westwood 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.58% 0.13%
68 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% ≈ 332/1 0.58% 0.28%
69 USA Austin Cook 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.58% 0.35%
70 USA Maverick McNealy 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.58% -0.03%
71 CAN Adam Hadwin 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% ≈ 148/1 0.58% -0.1%
72 USA John Huh 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% ≈ 258/1 0.55% 0.16%
73 IRL Padraig Harrington 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.52% 0.39%
74 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.51% 0.28%
75 USA Brendan Steele 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.5% -0.04%
76 USA Charles Howell III 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% ≈ 258/1 0.48% 0.1%
77 SCO Russell Knox 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% ≈ 236/1 0.48% 0.06%
78 USA Keegan Bradley 140 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.71% 0.48% ≈ 206/1 0.47% -0.01%
79 USA Chez Reavie 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% ≈ 258/1 0.47% 0.08%
80 USA Rickie Fowler 70 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% ≈ 103/1 0.46% -0.49%
81 USA Lucas Glover 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.46% 0.12%
82 THA Jazz Janewattananond 400 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% ≈ 589/1 0.45% 0.28%
83 KOR Byeong Hun An 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% ≈ 184/1 0.44% -0.1%
84 USA Mark Hubbard 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.42% 0.19%
85 USA Tyler Duncan 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 516/1 0.41% 0.22%
86 USA Patrick Rodgers 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.4% -0.05%
87 USA Harold Varner III 160 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% ≈ 236/1 0.4% -0.02%
88 USA Kyle Stanley 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.4% 0.06%
89 USA Kramer Hickok 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.4% 0.17%
90 USA Hudson Swafford 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.39% 0.12%
91 USA Aaron Wise 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.39% -0.06%
92 RSA Charl Schwartzel 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.3% ≈ 332/1 0.37% 0.07%
93 USA Tyler McCumber 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.35% 0.21%
94 USA William Gordon 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.34% 0%
95 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.33% 0.06%
96 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.32% -0.13%
97 ENG Danny Willett 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.32% -0.13%
98 USA Robby Shelton 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.3% 0.08%
99 AUS Cameron Percy 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.3% -0.04%
100 NZL Danny Lee 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.3% 0.07%
101 SWE Henrik Stenson 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.29% -0.16%
102 USA Jim Herman 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.27% 0.14%
103 USA Brandt Snedeker 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.26% -0.01%
104 USA Luke List 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.26% -0.35%
105 IND Anirban Lahiri 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% ≈ 589/1 0.25% 0.08%
106 USA Denny McCarthy 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 516/1 0.25% 0.06%
107 USA Doc Redman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% ≈ 368/1 0.24% -0.03%
108 COL Camilo Villegas 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.23% 0.09%
109 USA John Augenstein 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% ≈ 1104/1 0.22% 0.13%
110 NIR Graeme McDowell 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.19% -0.15%
111 USA Jason Dufner 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.18% -0.05%
112 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 300 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.18% -0.05%
113 USA Matt Every 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.15% 0.02%
114 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.14% -0.31%
115 USA Kamaiu Johnson 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% ≈ 2944/1 0.1% 0.07%
116 USA Robert Gamez 5000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% ≈ 7359/1 0.09% 0.08%
117 USA Rod Perry 2500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 3680/1 0.09% 0.06%
118 USA Paul Goydos 2000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% ≈ 2944/1 0.09% 0.06%
119 USA Tim Herron 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% ≈ 2208/1 0.09% 0.05%
120 GER Matthias Schmid 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 736/1 0.09% -0.04%
121 USA Pat Perez 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
122 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
123 COL Juan Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 38.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.1 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 51% 17.1%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 54.9% 20.1%
3 VBet 8 @ 1/5 57.7% 22.3%
4 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 57.9% 22.4%
5 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 59.5% 23.8%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.2%
7 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 60.1% 24.2%
8 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 89.7% 28.1%
9 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 50.6% 34.4%
10 Betway 7 @ 1/5 60.6% 34.6%
11 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 55.7% 38.9%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.7% 38.9%
13 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.7% 38.9%
14 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 57.4% 40.4%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.5% 40.6%
17 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56% 42.2%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 58.1% 44.2%
19 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.7%