Betting Market Analysis for BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.

Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 9/1 0% 0%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 16/1 0% 0%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 20/1 0% 0%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 25/1 0% 0%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 28/1 0% 0%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 31/1 0% 0%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 35/1 0% 0%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 35/1 0% 0%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 0% 0%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 0% 0%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 0% 0%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 0% 0%
13 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 42/1 0% 0%
14 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% ≈ 55/1 0% 0%
15 SWE Alexander Noren 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% ≈ 55/1 0% 0%
16 RSA Erik van Rooyen 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.77% ≈ 55/1 0% 0%
17 BEL Thomas Pieters 45 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.58% ≈ 62/1 0% 0%
18 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 50 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.42% ≈ 69/1 0% 0%
19 USA Billy Horschel 55 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.3% ≈ 76/1 0% 0%
20 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.19% ≈ 83/1 0% 0%
21 ENG Ian Poulter 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.08% ≈ 91/1 0% 0%
22 NED Joost Luiten 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.08% ≈ 91/1 0% 0%
23 ENG Danny Willett 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% ≈ 91/1 0% 0%
24 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% ≈ 91/1 0% 0%
25 ENG Lee Westwood 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% ≈ 97/1 0% 0%
26 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% ≈ 97/1 0% 0%
27 SCO Robert MacIntyre 75 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.95% ≈ 104/1 0% 0%
28 GER Martin Kaymer 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% ≈ 111/1 0% 0%
29 USA Andrew Putnam 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.9% ≈ 111/1 0% 0%
30 ITA Andrea Pavan 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% ≈ 111/1 0% 0%
31 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% ≈ 111/1 0% 0%
32 SWE Alexander Bjork 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% ≈ 111/1 0% 0%
33 ENG Tom Lewis 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.8% ≈ 124/1 0% 0%
34 SWE Marcus Kinhult 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.8% ≈ 124/1 0% 0%
35 RSA Branden Grace 100 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0% 0%
36 ENG Andrew Johnston 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0% 0%
37 ENG Eddie Pepperell 100 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0% 0%
38 BEL Thomas Detry 100 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0% 0%
39 ENG Sam Horsfield 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0% 0%
40 ENG Ross Fisher 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% ≈ 173/1 0% 0%
41 ENG Andy Sullivan 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% ≈ 173/1 0% 0%
42 SCO Russell Knox 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% ≈ 173/1 0% 0%
43 MAS Gavin Green 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% ≈ 173/1 0% 0%
44 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.51% ≈ 193/1 0% 0%
45 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% ≈ 207/1 0% 0%
46 RSA Justin Harding 150 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% ≈ 207/1 0% 0%
47 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% ≈ 207/1 0% 0%
48 ITA Guido Migliozzi 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% ≈ 207/1 0% 0%
49 FRA Romain Langasque 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% ≈ 207/1 0% 0%
50 ENG Paul Waring 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% ≈ 242/1 0% 0%
51 ESP Jorge Campillo 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% ≈ 242/1 0% 0%
52 AUS Lucas Herbert 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% ≈ 242/1 0% 0%
53 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
54 RSA Richard Sterne 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
55 ENG Chris Wood 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
56 AUS Wade Ormsby 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
57 ENG James Morrison 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
58 ENG Matthew Southgate 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
59 ENG Aaron Rai 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% ≈ 276/1 0% 0%
60 RSA George Coetzee 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% ≈ 310/1 0% 0%
61 IRL Padraig Harrington 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% ≈ 310/1 0% 0%
62 ARG Andres Romero 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% ≈ 310/1 0% 0%
63 FIN Mikko Korhonen 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% ≈ 310/1 0% 0%
64 SWE Joakim Lagergren 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% ≈ 310/1 0% 0%
65 ENG Jordan L Smith 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% ≈ 310/1 0% 0%
66 ENG Luke Donald 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
67 JPN Hideto Tanihara 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
68 ITA Edoardo Molinari 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
69 SCO Scott Jamieson 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
70 RSA Haydn Porteous 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
71 AUS Jason Scrivener 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
72 RSA Dean Burmester 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
73 ENG Chris Paisley 250 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
74 ITA Renato Paratore 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
75 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
76 ENG Ashley Chesters 250 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% ≈ 345/1 0% 0%
77 ENG Lee Slattery 275 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% ≈ 379/1 0% 0%
78 USA Kurt Kitayama 275 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% ≈ 379/1 0% 0%
79 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
80 SCO Richie Ramsay 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
81 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
82 FRA Romain Wattel 300 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
83 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
84 WAL Bradley Dredge 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
85 ESP Alvaro Quiros 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
86 ENG Robert Rock 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
87 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
88 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
89 RSA Brandon Stone 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
90 USA Julian Suri 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% ≈ 414/1 0% 0%
91 FRA Benjamin Hebert 350 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 483/1 0% 0%
92 CHN Wu Ashun 350 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 483/1 0% 0%
93 NZL Ryan Fox 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 483/1 0% 0%
94 GER Maximilian Kieffer 350 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 483/1 0% 0%
95 ITA Nino Bertasio 350 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 483/1 0% 0%
96 IRL Paul Dunne 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% ≈ 483/1 0% 0%
97 SCO Stephen Gallacher 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
98 USA David Lipsky 400 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
99 RSA Darren Fichardt 400 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
100 ENG Oliver Fisher 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
101 ENG Steven Brown 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
102 IND Shubhankar Sharma 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
103 FRA Matthieu Pavon 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% ≈ 552/1 0% 0%
104 THA Thongchai Jaidee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
105 RSA Ernie Els 500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
106 SWE Robert Karlsson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
107 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
108 RSA Thomas Aiken 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
109 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
110 ESP Adrian Otaegui 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
111 FRA Julien Guerrier 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% ≈ 689/1 0% 0%
112 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 600 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% ≈ 827/1 0% 0%
113 KOR Jeunghun Wang 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% ≈ 827/1 0% 0%
114 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 600 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% ≈ 827/1 0% 0%
115 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 600 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% ≈ 827/1 0% 0%
116 ENG Richard McEvoy 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% ≈ 1034/1 0% 0%
117 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
118 ENG David Howell 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
119 RSA Justin Walters 1000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
120 POR Ricardo Gouveia 1000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
121 RSA Trevor Immelman 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
122 SWE Jens Dantorp 1000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
123 SCO David Law 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
124 ENG David Dixon 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1378/1 0% 0%
125 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 1250 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% ≈ 1723/1 0% 0%
126 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% ≈ 2067/1 0% 0%
127 SUI Robert Coles 2000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2756/1 0% 0%
128 ENG Matthew Cort 2000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2756/1 0% 0%
129 SCO Paul O'Hara 2000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2756/1 0% 0%
130 ESP Jose M Olazabal 2500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 3445/1 0% 0%
131 CHN Li Haotong 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
132 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 35.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 6 @ 1/4 49.1% 20.4%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 57.4% 22.4%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 64.2% 27.6%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.2% 28.4%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 66.3% 29.2%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 54.5% 29.6%
7 Redzone 6 @ 1/4 60.8% 29.8%
8 SportPesa 6 @ 1/4 60.8% 29.8%
9 10Bet 6 @ 1/4 60.8% 29.8%
10 Bethard 6 @ 1/4 60.8% 29.8%
11 MoPlay 6 @ 1/4 60.8% 29.8%
12 Marathon Bet 6 @ 1/4 66% 34%
13 Sportingbet 7 @ 1/5 61.7% 35.7%
14 Ladbrokes 7 @ 1/5 62.3% 36.2%
15 Coral 7 @ 1/5 62.3% 36.2%
16 Betway 7 @ 1/5 63.1% 36.9%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 55.7% 42.2%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 55.7% 42.2%
19 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.9%
20 Black Type 6 @ 1/5 59.7% 45.8%
21 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 63.1% 48.8%